Airbus SE is a large-cap common stock in the Aerospace & Defense sector, the world's leading commercial-aircraft maker (it also builds helicopters, military transports, satellites and launchers), listed on Euronext Paris and a component of the CAC 40 and Euro Stoxx 50. After a multi-year bull run it printed an all-time high near €220–221 in mid-January 2026, then corrected ~28% into a March low before recovering to the high-€180s. This analysis reads the weekly/daily impulse as complete and frames the current zone as a corrective phase battling major resistance. Series updated through 2026-06-19. Instrument details auto-detected from filename + web search — please verify.
Probability-ranked, mutually exclusive scenarios from the as-of close of €189.42 (2026-06-19). The final daily impulse (133.06 → 220.20) counts as a complete five waves; the move since the March low is structurally overlapping (corrective-looking), and price is now pressing into a cluster of resistance — the 50% retrace of the decline (≈189.7), the daily 200-day SMA (≈189.6) and the prior lower high (200.65). That combination keeps the set balanced rather than decisively bullish.
| # | Scenario | Dir | Next wave / degree | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cycle IV complete — Cycle V impulse underway 159.18 was the corrective low; new bull leg has begun (may pause at the 200-DMA first) | Up | Cycle ⑤ / Primary ① up | 200.65 | 220.20 | 243–258 | Daily close < 159.18 | 38% |
| 2 | Cycle IV wave-B rally — wave C pending overlapping a-b-c bounce into the 50–61.8% retrace; rejection → one more leg down | Down | Wave C of IV (Intermediate) | 166 | 159.18 | 148–152 | Daily close > 220.20 (weakened > 200.65) | 35% |
| 3 | Cycle IV as a triangle / flat — range chop alternation vs the sharp Cycle II argues for a sideways, time-consuming IV | Sideways | Wave D/E of IV triangle | 200 | 166 | resolve ↑ 205+ | Sustained break of 159.18 or 220.20 | 27% |
No stored cycle-forecast file matches symbol AIR in the skill's library (the available 2026 cycle files cover AAPL, AMD, AMZN, ASML, BABA, BKNG, COIN, DXY, ES, EUR, GOOG, MSFT, MU, NASDAQ, NFLX, NVDA, ORCL, TSM — not Airbus). Cycle-timing correlation is therefore omitted, and the forecast chart below carries no cycle overlay. Scenario probabilities are derived purely from Elliott-Wave rule compliance and indicator confluence (Volume / RSI / UO).
Current wave: Cycle wave IV (corrective), in progress since the 220.20 top of 13 Jan 2026; the leg down to 159.18 (30 Mar 2026) is its first decline and the rally to ~192 is most likely a counter-trend bounce. Direction is contested at resistance. The long-term Supercycle advance off the 2003 low (~€7) remains firmly intact.
| Degree | Label / structure | Anchor | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle | (III) up from 2003 low ~7.00 | 2003 → present | Intact, well above all weekly SMAs |
| Cycle | I (118.50) · II (88.89) · III (220.20) | 2020 → 2026 | III topped Jan-2026 |
| Cycle (current) | IV — corrective (zigzag / flat / triangle) | 220.20 → 159.18 → ? | ACTIVE — bounce at resistance |
| Primary | ①②③④⑤ built Cycle III (③ = the Apr25→Jan26 impulse) | 2022 → 2026 | ⑤ complete at ATH |
| Intermediate | (A)/(W) down · (B)/(X) bounce up (current) | Mar → Jun 2026 | (B) testing 50–61.8% retrace |
The wave in focus is the corrective rally off 159.18. It has carried to 191.94 (193.16 intraday) — a 54% retrace of the 220.20→159.18 decline — and is now decelerating into resistance. Sub-structure since the low is choppy and overlapping (179.48 → 165.56 → 188.50 → 165.96 → 191.94), with the May and June swings overlapping one another, which is the hallmark of a correction (B-wave or triangle) rather than a clean five-wave impulse.
| Item | Reading |
|---|---|
| Active wave | Cycle IV corrective bounce — Intermediate (B)/(X) |
| Start | 159.18 on 2026-03-30 |
| Current | 189.42 close (2026-06-19); local high 191.94 / 193.16 intraday |
| Retrace of decline | ~54% (50% = 189.7; 61.8% = 196.9) |
| Sub-structure | Overlapping a-b-c / w-x-y (not impulsive) |
| Invalidation (bull) | daily close < 159.18 |
| Measure | Level | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 61.8% retrace of 220.20→159.18 | 196.89 | Upper B-wave resistance |
| 78.6% retrace of 220.20→159.18 | 207.14 | Deep-bounce cap |
| 61.8% retrace of 133.06→220.20 | 166.35 | Support already broken/retested |
| 78.6% retrace of 133.06→220.20 | 151.71 | Wave-C downside target zone |
| 38.2% / 61.8% ext. of 159.18 (Cycle V) | 243.5 / 257.9 | Cycle-V projection targets |
Daily: RSI 63.9 (firm, not overbought), UO 50.4 (neutral); the 18 Jun thrust came on 1.66× the 20-day average volume. Weekly: RSI 55.6, UO 51.8 — neutral, neither confirming a fresh impulse nor signalling exhaustion. Net: momentum supports continuation but does not yet validate a breakout; the heavy-volume push straight into the 200-DMA/50%-retrace wall is the single most important confluence to watch.
| Pivot date | Price | Wave label | RSI | UO | Volume | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-22 | 133.06 | (2)/impulse low | 32.6 | 41.2 | 1.95M | Oversold launch |
| 2025-07-18 | 186.22 | (1) | 70.9 | 63.4 | 1.02M | Overbought w1 top |
| 2025-08-01 | 169.10 | (2) | 36.4 | 26.6 | 1.37M | Healthy reset |
| 2025-11-03 | 214.15 | (3) | 72.0 | 61.6 | 0.66M | Strong, vol light |
| 2025-12-17 | 190.40 | (4) | 35.9 | 39.0 | 0.80M | Above (1) top — no overlap ✓ |
| 2026-01-13 | 220.20 | (5) = ③ / III top | 77.4 | 77.7 | 0.89M | Extreme OB; no bear divergence (note) |
| 2026-03-30 | 159.18 | IV low / (A) | 31.6 | 43.1 | 1.50M | Oversold correction low |
| 2026-05-06 | 188.50 | bounce (a) | 67.5 | 59.6 | 2.67M | Heavy-volume rally |
| 2026-05-21 | 165.96 | bounce (b) | 42.9 | 40.3 | 1.78M | Deep overlap (corrective) |
| 2026-06-18 | 191.94 | (B)/(c)? | 68.0 | 54.3 | 2.18M | 1.66× vol into resistance |
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Supercycle (III) up | Up | Bullish | 147 (SMA-50) | 221 | ✓ trend |
| Primary | Weekly | Cycle IV correction | Down/side | Neutral | 160 / 135 | 200.65 / 220 | ⚠ vs macro |
| Intermediate | Daily | (B)/(X) bounce | Up (counter) | Neutral | 166 / 159 | 189.6 (200-DMA) / 196.9 | ⚠ at resistance |
| Minor | 1-Hour | a-b-c rally, late | Up | Neutral | 169 / 166 | 193 / 196.9 | ⚠ overlapping |
| Minuette | 30-Min | push to 193.16, fading | Up | Neutral | 172.5 | 193.2 | ⚠ momentum easing |
Alignment narrative. The macro (monthly) is unambiguously bullish, but every tradeable layer below it is in or near a correction that is now colliding with resistance. This is the textbook "daily/intraday bounce inside a higher-degree pause" configuration — not an all-aligned long. The decisive tell is binary and close at hand: a daily close back above 200.65 swings the weekly/daily layers bullish (Cycle V), while rejection at the 200-DMA / 50% retrace tips them to a wave-C decline. Until one resolves, confluence is mixed — a wait-and-confirm posture.
| Setup | Trigger / entry zone | Target | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull continuation | Daily close > 200.65, or hold of 185–187 on a pullback | 207 → 220 | < 184 (1h close) | 1h higher-high above 196.9 on strong vol |
| Bounce-failure (wave C) | Rejection 193–197; 1h close < 184 | 169 → 159 → 150 | > 200.65 (1h close) | 1h impulsive break of 169.3 / 165.96 |
| Range fade | Sell ~198–200 / buy ~166–169 | opposite edge | beyond range edge | overlapping, no breakout on either side |
Wave count. Intermediate/Minor view of the bounce off the 159.18 Cycle-IV low (window from 2026-02-10). The advance labels as an overlapping a-b-c (or w-x-y): 159.18 → 179.48 (a) → 165.56 (b) → 188.50 → 165.96 → 193.16. The b/x and the later 165.96 low sit almost on top of each other while 188.50 prints between them — overlap that is incompatible with a clean five-wave impulse and consistent with a corrective rally.
Key levels. Resistance 193.2 (local high), 196.9 (61.8% retrace), 200.65 (lower high). Support 169.3 / 166.0 (bounce overlap lows), 159.18 (invalidation for the bull case). Data: 817 hourly bars, 2026-02-10 → 2026-06-19; RSI 53.9, UO 59.4 at the last bar.
Wave count. The full daily history frames Primary ② (126.84, Sep-2024) → the five-wave Intermediate impulse (1)-(5) into the 220.20 ATH that completes Primary ③ / Cycle III, then the IV/(A) decline to 159.18 and the (B)? bounce. Wave (4) at 190.40 held above wave (1) at 186.22 — no overlap, a valid impulse ✓; wave (3) was not the shortest ✓.
Key levels. Resistance 196.9, 200.65, 220.20 (ATH). Support 166.4 (61.8% of the last impulse), 159.18 (IV low), 151.7 (78.6%). Price is wrestling with the 200-day SMA (≈189.6); SMA-50 (175.0) and SMA-100 (177.1) have been reclaimed. Data: 6,364 daily bars, 2001-09-03 → 2026-06-19; RSI 63.9, UO 50.4.
Wave count. Cycle/Primary view: Cycle I (118.50, 2022) · II (88.89) · the Primary ①–⑤ advance building Cycle III into the 217.40/221.30 weekly top · and the IV correction to 160.42. The macro Supercycle channel off the 2020 COVID low (49.51) and the 2003 low remains intact, with price well above the rising weekly SMA-200 (149.8).
Key levels. Resistance 200.65, 217–221 (ATH zone). Support 160 (IV low), 135 (Apr-2025 low / deeper Cycle-IV target). Weekly RSI 55.6, UO 51.8 — neutral. Data: 1,294 weekly bars, 2001-09-03 → 2026-06-15.