Amazon has advanced in a clean five-wave sequence since the December 2022 bear-market low near $84, printing a fresh all-time high of $278.56 on 5 May 2026. The structure currently sits inside a powerful third wave at Primary degree; the pullback from the May peak retraces a sub-wave, not the trend. Data spans daily, weekly, monthly, hourly and 30-minute bundles through 12 June 2026, and a stored 2026 cycle forecast is correlated with the count.
Three mutually exclusive scenarios, ranked by probability. Targets are Fibonacci-derived price projections; the cycle model supplies independent timing and direction only (never price). Probabilities reflect Elliott-Wave rule compliance, indicator confluence, and alignment with the +67% cycle up-window that opens around 18 June.
| Scenario | Dir | Next wave | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary — Minor 5 thrust Minor ④ bottoms, ⑤ completes Int (3) |
UP ▲ | Minor 5 → Int (3) top | 282 | 293 | 300–312 | 218.94 | 62% |
| Deeper fourth then up Correction extends to 61.8–78.6% before launch |
UP ▲ | Int (4) low → Int (5) | 213 | 268 | 283 | 196.00 | 25% |
| Bear — larger top in place May high ends a larger degree; Primary ④ correction |
DOWN ▼ | Primary ④ down | 213 | 198 | 185 | >278.56 ATH | 13% |
The stored dominant-cycle forecast marks a major low around 18 June 2026, opening a highlighted +67% high-confidence up-window that runs through 25 October 2026 — the year's most reliable directional stretch. Fast-cycle add-on dips sit at ~13 Jul and ~2 Sep inside that up-leg.
Confluence: the wave count places a Minor (or Intermediate) fourth-wave low forming right now, directly into the 18 June cycle trough — a textbook timing match. A rising fifth wave thereafter points the same way as the up-window, so the +67% reliability is treated as strong corroboration and lifts the bullish scenarios' combined weight to ~87%. The bear case (13%) fights a high-reliability up-window (⚠) and is held low for that reason; it would need a break below the February low (196–199) to gain standing. Cycle input shaped timing and direction of the nodes only — all price targets come from the Fibonacci work, not the cycle axis.
Current wave: Minor wave 4 (down/corrective) within Intermediate (3) of Primary ③, in an uptrend. The fourth wave began at the 5 May 2026 ATH (278.56) and is testing the 50–61.8% retracement zone of Minor 3 (≈239–229), with a 12 June low at 233.59.
| Degree | Active wave | Direction | Began | From price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | V (from 2022 low) | Up | 2022-12 | 84.00 | In progress |
| Primary | ③ | Up | 2025-04-07 | 161.38 | In progress |
| Intermediate | (3) | Up | 2026-02-17 | 196.00 | In progress |
| Minor ◄ | 4 | Down | 2026-05-05 | 278.56 | Active — basing |
| Minute | (a)-(b)-(c) of 4 | Down | 2026-05-19 | — | c-wave nearing end |
Confidence rationale. The count is rule-compliant at every degree: Minor 4 (low 233.6) sits comfortably above the Minor-1 high (218.94), so the impulse has not overlapped. Momentum is washed out at the low (RSI ≈ 35, UO ≈ 40) — typical for a fourth-wave trough rather than a trend reversal — and the timing lands on a high-confidence cycle low. The one caution is that the May peak printed on declining volume (≈42M vs ≈96M at the November high) with the Ultimate Oscillator failing to confirm, which keeps confidence at medium-high rather than high.
Alternate (the bear case, ~13%): the 5 May high completed a larger structure — Intermediate (3) truncating, or even Primary ③ — and AMZN is in a multi-week Primary ④ correction toward 213 → 198 → 185. This requires re-counting the late-2025 highs and runs against the cycle up-window, hence the low weight.
Invalidation ladder: a sustained close below 218.94 (Minor-1 top) negates the immediate Minor-4 label and favors the deeper-fourth path; below 196.00–198.79 (Int-(2) low) breaks the February impulse; below 161.38 (Primary ②) invalidates the entire Cycle-V bull count.
Intermediate (3) is unfolding from the 17 Feb 2026 low (196.00) as a clean five-wave Minor impulse. Minor 1–3 are complete; Minor 4 is in progress; Minor 5 is pending.
| Sub-wave | Date | Price | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 1 | 2026-03-05 | 218.94 | Done | Initial thrust off the (2) low |
| Minor 2 | 2026-03-27 | 199.14 | Done | Deep ~97% retrace; double-bottom retest of (2) |
| Minor 3 | 2026-05-05 | 278.56 | Done | Extended third; RSI 80.5; the all-time high |
| Minor 4 ◄ | 2026-06-12 | 233.59 | Active | 50–61.8% retrace of Minor 3; above 218.94 (no overlap) |
| Minor 5 | pending | ~282–293 | Forecast | Completes Int (3); into cycle up-window |
Minor 4's 12 June low (233.59) is a ~57% retrace of Minor 3 — between the 50% (238.85) and 61.8% (229.48) levels, the classic fourth-wave landing zone. A spike toward 229 or a mild overshoot to ~225 would still be healthy. Minor 5 projections cluster at 282 (0.618× of the net 1→3 distance) and 293 (Intermediate (3) = 1.0× Intermediate (1)); a strong run extends the Primary ③ objective toward 300–315.
| Pivot | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary ① top | 2025-01-27 | 235.42 | 49.4M | 64.9 | 72.1 | Momentum peak |
| Primary ② low | 2025-04-07 | 161.38 | 109.3M | 32.0 | 47.3 | Capitulation, 50% retrace |
| Int (1) top | 2025-11-03 | 258.60 | 96.0M | 71.8 | 61.6 | Overbought thrust |
| Int (2) low | 2026-02-17 | 196.00 | 69.9M | 26.7 | 42.5 | Oversold; 61.8% retrace |
| Minor 1 | 2026-03-05 | 218.94 | 60.9M | 53.9 | 73.2 | Strong launch |
| Minor 2 | 2026-03-27 | 199.14 | 56.0M | 37.8 | 40.2 | Deep retest |
| Minor 3 (ATH) | 2026-05-05 | 278.56 | 41.9M | 80.5 | 51.6 | RSI peak; ⚠ soft vol / UO non-confirm |
| Minor 4 (now) | 2026-06-12 | 233.59 | 51.2M | 34.8 | 39.8 | Washed out — fourth-wave trough |
Volume behaved textbook through the sequence: heaviest at the Primary ② capitulation, expanding on the Intermediate-(1) thrust, contracting through corrections. The lone yellow flag is the declining volume into the May ATH paired with a non-confirming Ultimate Oscillator — a classic late-impulse warning that argues the ATH is Minor 3, with one more high (Minor 5) still owed, rather than a clean trend top.
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary ③ | Up | Bullish | 196 / 161 | 278.56 | ✓ |
| Primary | Daily | Int (3) · Minor 4 | Down (corr.) | Bullish | 229 / 219 | 278.56 | ✓ |
| Intraday | 1-Hour | Minor 4 c-wave | Down | Turning up | 236.4 | 255.6 | ✓* |
| Precision | 30-Min | c of 4 ending | Down | Basing | 234.2 | 241.3 | ✓* |
All layers point the same way structurally: a bullish higher-degree trend with a corrective intraday pullback (✓* = counter-trend dip within an up-trend — wait for confirmation, don't fight it). The hourly shows a three-wave (a-b-c) decline off the ATH with lower highs into a 12 June low at 236.4, and RSI ticking back up (37 → 45 intraday) — the signature of a fourth-wave ending and an impulse about to resume.
| Setup | Entry zone | Target | Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor-5 long (primary) | 230–238 | 282 → 293 | <218.9 | 1H higher-high > 255.6 + UO cross 50 |
| Add-on (cycle dip) | ~ early Jul (≈13 Jul) | 293+ | <229 | Fast-cycle dip holds; trend intact |
| Invalidation watch | break < 218.9 | → 213 / 198 | — | Switch to deeper-fourth / bear path |
Wave count. A clear three-wave corrective decline: ③ at 276.4 (6 May) → a (255.9) → b (274.0, lower high) → c into 236.4 (12 June). Key levels: support 236.4 then the 229 daily Fib; resistance 255.6 (b-wave high) — an hourly close above it is the first confirmation that Minor 5 is underway. Data: 3,532 hourly bars, Jun 2024 → Jun 2026; latest RSI ≈ 45, UO ≈ 52 (recovering).
Wave count. Primary ① (84 → 235, Jan 2025) · Primary ② (→161, −50%) · Primary ③ from April 2025, with Intermediate (1) to 258.6 (Nov), Intermediate (2) to 196 (Feb, −61.8%), and Intermediate (3) impulsing from there — Minor 1-2-3 complete, Minor 4 active. Key levels: support 229 / 219 / 196; resistance 278.56 (ATH). Price sits above the rising SMA-200 (≈232.5) — long-term uptrend intact. Data: 7,315 daily bars, 1997 → Jun 2026.
Wave count. The 2022 low ($84) ended a Cycle-degree correction; Cycle V has since traced Primary ① (→235), ② (→161) and ③ (in progress, ATH 278.56). The advance respects a rising channel and holds firmly above all major moving averages. Key levels: structural support 161 (bull line in the sand); upside Primary-③ objective 300–315. Data: 1,518 weekly bars, 1997 → Jun 2026.