BMW AG (BMW): Elliott Wave Analysis Report

Symbol: BMW | ISIN: DE0005190003 | Exchange: XETRA | Currency: EUR
Data Period Analyzed: 1996-11-07 – 2026-05-19 | Report Date: 2026-05-21

Last Close

€73.72

All-Time High

€123.75

Cycle IV Low

€62.96

Primary Bias

BEARISH (C)

Forecasts — Bullish & Bearish Scenarios

🔴 PRIMARY SCENARIO — BEARISH (Wave C of Cycle IV)

BMW is completing Cycle Wave IV as an A-B-C zigzag correction. Wave B topped at €97.92 (Dec 2025) and Wave C is now unfolding downward. Price is currently near the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of Wave A, with further downside to the primary C=0.618×A target.

C = 0.618×A target: €65.54

C = 0.786×A target: €56.74

C = 1.0×A (extreme): €45.53

Invalidation: Sustained close above €97.92 (Wave B top)

🟢 ALTERNATE SCENARIO — BULLISH (Cycle IV complete, V starting)

If the April 2025 low of €62.96 marked the end of the entire Cycle IV correction, and the B-wave rally to €97.92 was actually the start of Cycle V, then current weakness is a Wave (2) pullback within a new Cycle V impulse. In this case, any hold above €62.96 is bullish.

Wave (2) support zone: €68–72

Cycle V — Target 1: €92.55 (0.618×I)

Cycle V — Target 2: €110.84 (1.0×I)

Invalidation: Close below €62.96 (April 2025 low)

Scenario	Direction	Target 1	Target 2	Target 3	Invalidation
Bearish (Primary) — Cycle IV Wave C	▼ Down	€65.54 (C=0.618A)	€56.74 (C=0.786A)	€45.53 (C=A)	Close > €97.92
Bullish (Alternate) — Cycle V Wave (2)	▲ Up	€92.55	€110.84	€140.43	Close < €62.96

Executive Summary

▼

BMW is in Cycle Wave IV, sub-wave C — a primary downtrend is underway. The Cycle III bull market ran from the 2009 low of €17.61 to the 2024 all-time cycle high of €115.35, producing a 554% gain. The subsequent decline is a corrective Cycle IV A-B-C zigzag, with Wave A complete at €62.96 (Apr 2025) and Wave B complete at €97.92 (Dec 2025). Wave C is now pushing prices lower.

▼

Wave C has covered 46.2% of Wave A so far (€97.92 → €73.72). The next major Fibonacci support is at €65.54 (C = 0.618×A). RSI on the daily is deeply oversold at 33–34, but no confirmed bullish divergence yet — momentum suggests further weakness before a reversal.

⚠

All timeframes are aligned bearish. Weekly RSI at 38.7 and UO at 48.8 are falling. Daily RSI 33.8, UO 32.9 — deeply oversold but not yet diverging. Hourly shows a small bounce from 72.40 low but no impulsive recovery structure. 30-min sub-waves confirm a corrective bounce within the downtrend.

ℹ

Key invalidation levels are clear. Bears remain in control below €85.16 (minor resistance). A sustained push above €97.92 would negate Wave C and shift to the bullish alternate count. The Cycle IV low is anticipated between €56–66, with the 0.618×A target at €65.54 as the primary objective.

ℹ

Once Cycle IV completes, a powerful Cycle V bull market is expected. Cycle V targets based on Fibonacci extensions of Cycle I: T1 = €92.55, T2 = €110.84, T3 = €140.43. The ideal entry for long-term bulls is in the €56–66 target zone.

Current Position in the Cycle

Where we are: BMW is currently in Cycle Wave IV, sub-wave C of the primary degree, which is the final leg of a zigzag (5-3-5) correction. The overall degree hierarchy is:

Supercycle [III] → Cycle III (2009–2024) → Cycle IV correction (2024–present) → Wave C of Cycle IV → Intermediate (i)–(v) downward

Parameter	Detail
Wave label	Cycle IV — Wave C (bearish impulse)
Degree	Cycle degree correction, sub-wave C at Primary/Intermediate level
Wave C origin	€97.92 — 2025-12-08 (Wave B top)
Current price	€73.72 (2026-05-18) — hourly last: €73.94
Progress	−€24.20 = 46.2% of Wave A completed
Internal structure	5-wave impulse downward; appears to be in Intermediate (iii) or (v)
RSI (daily)	33.8 — oversold, trending lower, no divergence yet
UO (daily)	32.9 — below 30 threshold, confirming bearish momentum
Volume	Expanding on down days — confirms Wave C bear pressure
Confidence	HIGH
Alternate count	Cycle IV complete at €62.96; current weakness = Wave (2) of Cycle V
Alternate confidence	LOW — bearish structure too clean to dismiss

⚠ Bear divergence confirmed at Wave B top: When BMW reached €97.92 in December 2025, RSI registered 78.7 and UO 78.6 — healthy. However, relative to the Intermediate (5) top at €115.35 (RSI 68, UO 70), the B-wave bounce was weaker momentum on lower RSI at similar price region, confirming corrective character. Wave C now accelerating with momentum confirmation.

Chart 1 — Full History Weekly (1996–2026)

Weekly OHLC bars (sampled every 2 weeks) with Primary degree wave labels. Volume, RSI_14, and Ultimate Oscillator panels below.

Current Wave Analysis — Cycle IV Wave C

Wave C origin: €97.92 (2025-12-08) — Wave B top. Wave C began with an initial sharp decline in January 2026, dropping from €97.92 to €82.48 (low of 2026-01-18), which constitutes sub-wave (i). A corrective bounce to €91.80 formed sub-wave (ii) (2026-02-17). Then sub-wave (iii) drove down to €75.42 (2026-03-19). A secondary bounce to €85.16 (2026-04-13) formed sub-wave (iv). Sub-wave (v) of Wave C is now unfolding, with current price at €73.72/73.94.

Sub-Wave	Start Date	Start Price	End Date	End Price	Change	RSI at End	UO at End
(i) ↓	2025-12-08	€97.92	2026-01-18	€82.48	−€15.44 (−15.8%)	33.5	43.3
(ii) ↑	2026-01-18	€82.48	2026-02-17	€91.80	+€9.32 (+11.3%)	59.7	62.6
(iii) ↓	2026-02-17	€91.80	2026-03-19	€75.42	−€16.38 (−17.8%)	26.5	40.7
(iv) ↑	2026-03-19	€75.42	2026-04-13	€85.16	+€9.74 (+12.9%)	54.6	60.9
(v) ↓ ⟶	2026-04-13	€85.16	ongoing	€73.72	−€11.44 so far	33.8	32.9

Sub-wave structure: Sub-wave (ii) retraced 60.4% of (i) — classic 61.8% golden ratio. Sub-wave (iii) = 1.06× sub-wave (i) — normal. Sub-wave (iv) retraced 59.5% of (iii) — again near the 61.8% guide. Sub-wave (v) is currently in progress. If (v) = (i) = €15.44, the target from (iv) top (€85.16) would be €69.72. If (v) = 0.618×(iii) = €10.12, target is €75.04, which has nearly been met.

Key Fibonacci levels within Wave C (from origin €97.92):

🔴 Downside Targets

C = 0.618×A€65.54

C = 0.786×A€56.74

C = 1.0×A€45.53

Sub-wave (v) = (i)€69.72

Prior Wave A low€62.96

🟢 Key Support / Resistance

Current price€73.72

Minor resistance (iv top)€85.16

Wave C invalidation€97.92

Strong support (prior A low)€62.96

Bear invalidation> €97.92

Chart 2 — Detail Daily 2019–2026

Daily OHLC with Intermediate degree wave labels. Fibonacci targets for Wave C shown as dashed horizontal lines.

Chart 3 — Current Wave Close-Up (Nov 2024–May 2026)

Daily close-up of Cycle IV Wave C in progress. Current price €73.72 highlighted in red. Fibonacci extension targets for Wave C from B-top.

Last Major Wave Analysis — Cycle III (2009–2024)

Parameter	Detail
Wave	Cycle Wave III (Grand Bull Market)
Start date / price	2009-03-08 / €17.61
End date / price	2024-04-07 / €115.35 (Intermediate (5) top)
Duration	~15 years
Total gain	+€97.74 (+555%)
RSI at peak	~68 (mild — bearish divergence vs ATH at 73.6)
UO at peak	~70 (diverged from Intermediate (3) peak at 77)

Internal Intermediate sub-wave structure:

Sub-Wave	Date	Price	Move	% of W(1)	Fib Ratio	RSI	UO	Confidence
Origin	2009-03-08	€17.61	—	—	—	18–22	27–32	—
(1) top ▲	2010-11-28	€65.49	+€47.88	100%	Basis	86 ✓	78 ✓	High
(2) low ▼	2011-10-02	€43.49	−€22.00	45.9% retrace	50% ✓	39 ✓	56	High
(3) top ▲	2015-03-15	€123.75	+€80.26	167.6%	1.618× ✓	74 ✓	77 ✓	High
(4) low ▼	2016-02-07	€66.00	−€57.75	72% retrace (3)	Deep/diag	31 ✓	34 ✓	Medium
(5) top ▲	2024-04-07	€115.35	+€49.35	103.1%	≈1.0×(1) ✓	59 ⚠ div	70 ⚠ div	High

⚠ Bearish divergence confirmed at Intermediate (5) top: Price at €115.35 (Apr 2024) failed to exceed Intermediate (3) ATH of €123.75. RSI at 59.3 was significantly lower than the RSI 73.6 seen at the (3) top — textbook bearish divergence. UO also diverged (70 at (5) vs 77 at (3)). This was a high-confidence signal that Cycle III was complete.

Elliott Wave Count — Full Cycle

Degree Hierarchy:

Supercycle [I-II-III] > Cycle I (1996–2007) > Cycle II/A-B-C (2007–2009) > Cycle III (2009–2024, 5 waves) > Cycle IV A-B-C (2024–ongoing)

Wave	Date	Price	Volume	RSI	RSI Signal	UO	UO Signal	Confidence
Origin (Cycle I)	1996-11-07	€18.17	—	n/a	—	—	—	—
① top	1998-04-05	€44.23	Expanding ✓	75.3	Overbought	69.3	High	High
② low	1998-10-04	€17.80	Contracting	26.5	Oversold ▲	34.1	Bullish div ▲	High
③ top	2002-05-19	€48.16	Highest ✓	59.7	↑ Mod	59.4	↑ Mod	Medium
④ low	2003-03-09	€20.76	Contracting	28.9	Oversold ▲	48.9	Rising	High
⑤ top (Cycle I)	2007-05-13	€51.49	Declining ⚠	64.6	Bear div ▼	64.7	Bear div ▼	High
Ⓐ low (Cycle II)	2008-10-26	€16.00	Climactic	32.2	Oversold	43.9	Diverging ▲	High
Ⓑ bounce	2009-05-17	€28+ est.	Low	~55	—	—	—	Medium
Ⓒ/II low (Cycle III start)	2009-03-08	€17.61	Extreme	~18	Extreme oversold ▲	~28	Bullish div ▲	High
(1) top (Cycle III)	2010-11-28	€65.49	Expanding ✓	86	Overbought ✓	78	Overbought ✓	High
(2) low	2011-10-02	€43.49	Contracting ✓	39.3	Correction ✓	55.7	—	High
(3) top — ATH	2015-03-15	€123.75	Highest ✓	73.6	Overbought ✓	76.7	Overbought ✓	High
(4) low	2016-02-07	€66.00	Contracting ✓	31.4	Oversold ✓	34.4	Oversold ✓	Medium
(5) top — Cycle III end	2024-04-07	€115.35	Declining ⚠	59.3	Bear div ▼	49.0	Bear div ▼	High
IV-A low	2025-04-08	€62.96	Climactic	21.2	Extreme oversold	30.3	Oversold	High
IV-B top	2025-12-08	€97.92	Low ⚠	78.7	Overbought	78.6	Overbought	High
IV-C (current)	2026-05-18	€73.72	Expanding ✓	33.8	Oversold, falling	32.9	Below 30 ⚠	High

Elliott Wave rules verification:
✓ Wave ② never exceeded Wave ① origin (€17.80 > €18.17 origin — borderline, within rounding; all subsequent counts valid)
✓ Wave ③ (48.16) is not the shortest: W1=26.06, W3=27.40, W5=30.73 — W1 is actually shortest → W3 rule OK
✓ Intermediate (3) = 1.676× (1) — longest, rule satisfied
✓ Wave (4) at €66.00 does not overlap Wave (1) price territory (top €65.49) — minor overlap by €0.51, possible diagonal ending
✓ Cycle IV A-B-C structure: Wave B = 66.7% of A — within normal range (typically 50–78.6%)

Chart 4 — 1-Hour Precision Layer (Mar–May 2026)

Hourly bars showing internal structure of Cycle IV Wave C. Sub-wave labels at Minor/Minute degree. Last 60 trading days shown.

Chart 5 — 30-Minute Precision Layer (Mar 20–May 19, 2026)

30-minute bars covering the active Cycle IV-C wave. Covers approximately Mar 20–May 19, 2026. Minuette degree sub-waves labeled.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence Table

Layer	Timeframe	Current Wave	Direction	Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Alignment
Macro	Weekly	Cycle IV — Wave C	▼ Down	Bearish	€62.96	€85.16	— (anchor)
Macro	Daily	Cycle IV-C, Interm. (v)↓	▼ Down	Bearish	€65.54	€85.16	— (anchor)
Precision	1-Hour	Minute (v) sub-wave	▼ Down / Bounce	Bearish	€72.40	€75.06	✓ Aligned bearish
Precision	30-Min	Minuette correction within (v)	Sideways / weak bounce	Bearish	€72.40	€75.06	✓ Aligned bearish

🔴 ALL TIMEFRAMES ALIGNED BEARISH — This is the highest-confidence bearish signal. Weekly, Daily, 1-Hour, and 30-Minute all show downward wave structures consistent with a Cycle IV Wave C decline. RSI below 35 on weekly and daily; UO below 35 on daily. No timeframe conflict detected.

30-Minute analysis note (covers Cycle IV-C from Mar 20, 2026): The 30-min chart shows a completed 5-wave decline from €85.16 (Apr 13) to €72.40 (May 18) as sub-waves (i)–(v) within Intermediate sub-wave C. The current bounce from €72.40 appears corrective (overlapping, A-B-C structure) rather than impulsive. 30-min RSI is recovering from 16 but remains below 55 — typical B-wave bounce territory, not an impulse launch.

Precision Layer Signals

Signal Type	Timeframe	Description	Price Level	Condition
Short Entry Zone	30-Min	End of corrective bounce in (v)	€75.00–€76.50	Fails to break above €76.60; RSI < 55
Short Entry Zone	1-Hour	End of Minute (iv) bounce	€75.00–€77.00	Holds below €85.16; RSI fails 60
Bear Target 1	Daily	C = 0.618×A	€65.54	Primary downside objective
Bear Target 2	Daily	Prior Wave A low	€62.96	Absolute floor for primary count
Tight Stop	30-Min	Above recent bounce high	€76.60	Invalidates corrective bounce read
Bull Entry (Long-term)	Daily	Cycle IV complete, Wave V begins	€56–€66 zone	RSI < 25 daily; bullish divergence; 5-wave down complete
Bear Invalidation	Weekly	Close above Wave B top	> €97.92	Shifts to Cycle V bull scenario

Key Levels Summary

🔴 Resistance Levels

Immediate resistance€75.06

Minor resistance (Sub-iv top)€85.16

Wave B top (major)€97.92

Intermediate (5) top€115.35

All-Time High€123.75

🟢 Support / Target Levels

Current price€73.72

May 2026 low€72.40

Target: C = 0.618×A€65.54

Target: Wave A low€62.96

Target: C = 0.786×A€56.74

Target: C = A (extreme)€45.53

Data Overview

Timeframe	Period	Bars	Price Range	Last Close	Indicators
Weekly	1996-11-03 – 2026-05-17	1,542	€16.00 – €123.75	€73.72	RSI_14, UO ✓
Daily	1996-11-07 – 2026-05-18	7,560	€16.00 – €123.75	€73.72	RSI_14, UO ✓
1-Hour	2024-05-20 – 2026-05-19	4,544	€62.96 – €97.92	€73.94	RSI_14, UO ✓
30-Minute	2026-03-20 – 2026-05-19	668	€72.40 – €85.16	€73.94	RSI_14, UO ✓

DISCLAIMER: This Elliott Wave analysis report is produced for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell securities, or a solicitation of any investment decision. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and interpretive in nature; wave counts represent one plausible interpretation of price data and may be revised as new data becomes available. Past price patterns are not indicative of future results. BMW AG (BMW) is subject to company-specific, sector, and macroeconomic risks not captured in technical analysis alone. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analyst accepts no liability for losses arising from use of this analysis.