Senior Technical Analyst report · Report date: 15 June 2026 · Data through 12 June 2026 close (24,635.30)
| Name | DAX Performance Index (DAX 40) |
|---|---|
| Symbol | GDAXI (^GDAXI) |
| ISIN / WKN | DE0008469008 / 846900 |
| Exchange | Xetra / Frankfurt (Deutsche Börse) |
| Currency | EUR |
| Type | Equity index — 40 large-cap, total-return (performance) index |
The DAX is Germany's blue-chip benchmark, tracking the 40 largest Prime-Standard companies on the Frankfurt exchange as a dividend-reinvested total-return index. After more than tripling off the 2020 pandemic low, it printed an all-time high of 25,508 in January 2026 and is now working through its first significant multi-month correction of that advance.
Last close: 24,635.30 · ATH: 25,507.8 (13 Jan 2026) · YTD range: 21,864 – 25,508
Three mutually-exclusive, probability-ranked scenarios. All three agree the immediate path is corrective/sideways-to-lower; they diverge on what follows near the ~21,800 zone. The two bullish resolutions (primary + bullish alternate) together carry ~80% weight, reflecting an intact, rule-compliant multi-year impulse with price still well above every structural invalidation level.
| # | Scenario | Dir. | Next wave (degree) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wave (C) of ④ down → then ⑤ up Primary · flat correction |
DOWN | Intermediate (C) of Primary ④ (down), then Primary ⑤ (up) | 23,200 | 21,800 | 20,400 | Sustained break < 20,300 then < 18,490 | 50% |
| 2 | ④ already bottomed (Mar) — ⑤ underway Bullish alternate |
UP | Primary ⑤ — currently in sub-wave (2)/(ii) | 25,508 (reclaim ATH) | 26,800 | 29,800 | Break < 21,864 (Mar low) | 30% |
| 3 | Major top in — larger correction Bearish alternate |
DOWN | Primary Ⓐ–Ⓑ–Ⓒ / Cycle-degree correction (down) | 20,400 | 18,490 | 18,700 (50% of ③) | New ATH > 25,508 | 20% |
No stored cycle-forecast file matches GDAXI, so independent cycle-timing correlation is not available for this instrument. The forecast rests on Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci relationships and indicator confluence only.
Daily bars, year-to-date, with the "NOW" divider at the 12 Jun close. Dashed paths are the three ranked scenarios; horizontal dashed lines are the Fibonacci targets / invalidation levels listed above.
Current wave: Intermediate wave (C) of Primary wave ④ — direction DOWN — begun 25 May 2026 from 25,438.4. Price 24,635 sits early in this leg. Within it, a Minor 1 down (to the 10 Jun low 24,044, hourly RSI oversold at 24) and a Minor 2 bounce (to ~24,754) appear complete or nearly so, with Minor 3 down pending.
| Degree | Label | From → To | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | III (bull) | 2020 low → ongoing | In progress |
| Primary | ① | Mar-2020 8,256 → Nov-2021 16,290 | Complete |
| Primary | ② | Nov-2021 16,290 → Sep-2022 11,863 | Complete (sharp zigzag) |
| Primary | ③ (extended) | Sep-2022 11,863 → Jan-2026 25,508 | Complete |
| Primary | ④ ◀ current | Jan-2026 25,508 → in progress | Active — flat (A)-(B)-(C) |
| Intermediate | (A) | Jan 25,508 → Mar 21,864 | Complete (3 waves) |
| Intermediate | (B) | Mar 21,864 → May 25,438 (98% of A) | Complete (zigzag) |
| Intermediate | (C) ◀ current | May 25,438 → in progress | Active — down |
| Primary | ⑤ | after ④ low → new ATH | Pending |
The 2022→2026 impulse obeys all three wave rules cleanly (see Section 4), and the correction's structure satisfies the alternation guideline: wave ② was a sharp, deep zigzag, so a sideways flat for ④ is the textbook expectation — and a 98% B-wave retrace is precisely the signature of a regular flat. Momentum divergence at the May high reinforces the corrective read. Confidence is held to Medium (not High) because wave (C) is barely underway, leaving the bullish alternate (④ already complete) genuinely open.
Bullish alternate (30%): Primary ④ ended at the March low (21,864) as a single sharp zigzag, and the March→May rally is the opening leg of Primary ⑤ with the current dip its second wave. This is invalidated by a break below 21,864. Bearish alternate (20%): the entire advance topped in January and a Primary/Cycle-degree correction is unfolding toward 20,400 then 18,490; this is invalidated by a new high above 25,508.
| Attribute | Reading |
|---|---|
| Active wave | Intermediate (C) of Primary ④ — down |
| Start | 25 May 2026 @ 25,438.4 |
| Sub-structure expected | 5-wave decline (C-waves are impulsive) |
| Sub-waves done | Minor 1 ↓ (→24,044, 10 Jun) · Minor 2 ↑ bounce (→~24,754) |
| In progress | Minor 2 finishing / Minor 3 ↓ pending |
| Wave-(C) Fib targets | 0.618×A → 23,186 · 1.0×A → 21,794 · 1.382×A → 20,402 · 1.618×A → 19,542 |
| Wave-④ retrace of ③ | 23.6% = 22,288 · 38.2% = 20,295 · 50% = 18,685 |
| Invalidation (primary) | Sustained close below 20,300, decisively below 18,490 |
At the Jan-2026 ⑤/③ top, daily RSI (79) and UO (76) were both extreme — peak third-wave momentum. The May (B) retest reached within 70 points of the ATH but on RSI 65 / UO 55: a clear bearish divergence flagging that rally as corrective. The 10 Jun low printed hourly RSI 24 (oversold), consistent with the end of an initial impulsive thrust (Minor 1 of C). Macro context stays constructive: price (24,635) holds above SMA-200 (24,182) and the SMA-50 > SMA-200 golden cross is intact.
| Pivot (label) | Date | Price | RSI | UO | Volume | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) of ③ | 2023-07-31 | 16,529 | 64 | 73 | 61M | impulse up |
| (2) of ③ | 2023-10-23 | 14,630 | 32 | 43 | 61M | oversold ✓ correction low |
| (3) of ③ | 2025-03-17 | 23,476 | 59 | 50 | 67M | extension peak |
| (4) of ③ | 2025-04-07 | 18,490 | 25 | 42 | 247M | capitulation vol (tariff shock) |
| ⑤ / ③ TOP | 2026-01-13 | 25,508 | 79 | 76 | 52M | ⚠ overbought — major top |
| (A) of ④ | 2026-03-23 | 21,864 | 33 | 38 | 105M | sharp A-wave low |
| (B) of ④ | 2026-05-25 | 25,438 | 65 | 55 | 34M | ⚠ bearish divergence vs ATH |
| Minor 1 of (C) | 2026-06-10 | 24,044 | 42 | 33 | 60M | initial C-wave thrust |
| Layer | TF | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Primary ④ of Cycle III | Corrective | Bullish (long-term) | 21,800 / 18,490 | 25,508 | ✓ |
| Primary | Weekly | ④ — flat in progress | Down/sideways | Neutral-bullish | 21,864 | 25,438 / 25,508 | ✓ |
| Intermediate | Daily | (C) of ④ | Down | Bearish (tactical) | 23,200 / 21,800 | 25,438 | ✓ |
| Minor | 1-Hour | Minor 2/3 of (C) | Down | Bearish | 24,044 | 24,900 / 25,363 | ✓ |
| Minute | 30-Min | bounce within (C) | Counter-trend up | Bearish (parent) | 24,420 | 24,754 | ✓ |
All timeframes align: a long-term bull market (monthly/weekly) undergoing a tactical correction (daily/hourly). The configuration favours patience — the higher-probability long setup is a completed wave ④ near 21,800–23,200, not chasing the current decline.
| Setup | Trigger zone | Target | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tactical short (with (C)) | Rally into 24,750–24,900 | 23,800 → 23,200 | > 25,000 | Hourly lower-high + UO roll-over |
| Primary long (④ complete) | 21,800–23,200 reversal | 25,500 → 26,800 | < 20,300 | Hourly 5-up + bullish RSI divergence |
| Bull-alt long (⑤ live) | Reclaim & hold > 25,438 | 26,800+ | < 24,000 | Break above 25,508 ATH |
Wave count: the Intermediate (A)-(B) of Primary ④ resolves on the hourly into the early Minor structure of wave (C): Minor 1 down into the 10 Jun low (24,044, oversold) and a Minor 2 bounce. Key levels: resistance 24,900 / 25,363 (last hourly swing highs); support 24,044, then the (C) targets 23,200 / 21,800. Data: 4,611 hourly bars (Jun-2024 → Jun-2026); last reading RSI ~50, UO ~50 — neutral after the oversold bounce.
Wave count: the full Intermediate (1)-(5) of Primary ③ off the 2022 low, the ⑤/③ top at 25,508, and the developing ④ flat — (A) 21,864, (B) 25,438, (C) underway. Key levels: ATH 25,508 (invalidation for any bearish read); flat target ~21,800; Primary-count invalidation 18,490. Data: 9,722 daily bars; price holds above SMA-200, golden cross intact.
Wave count: the Primary sequence ①–③ off the 2020 low with the extended third topping in Jan-2026, now in Primary ④. Key levels: wave-④ objective ~21,800; ATH 25,508; long-term invalidation 18,490. Data: 2,007 weekly bars (1987 → 2026); weekly RSI cooled from 65 at the ATH to the low-50s — a routine bull-market pullback, not a breakdown.