Deutsche Börse AG (DB1) — Elliott Wave Analysis
Report Date: Wednesday, 3 June 2026 | Data through: 2 June 2026 (1H/30min) | 1 June 2026 (Daily) | 31 May 2026 (Weekly)
Instrument Information
| Name | Deutsche Börse AG |
| Symbol | DB1 |
| ISIN | DE0005810055 |
| Exchange | Frankfurt / Xetra (XETRA) |
| Currency | EUR |
| Type | Equity — Large Cap |
| Indices | DAX 40 |
| ATH | €294.30 (4 May 2025) |
| ATL (2001–) | €29.50 (8 Mar 2009) |
| Last Daily Close | €242.10 (1 Jun 2026) |
| Last 1H Close | €242.20 (2 Jun 2026, 15:00) |
| Market Cap | ~€44.5B |
Instrument Overview
Deutsche Börse AG is Germany's premier exchange group and Europe's second-largest exchange operator by market cap. It operates Xetra (cash equities), Eurex (world's largest derivatives exchange), Clearstream (custody/settlement), and owns the DAX index family. DB1 is a member of the DAX 40 and benefits from elevated market volatility, rising trading volumes, and structural growth in derivatives and data/index services.
DB1 hit its all-time high of €294.30 in May 2025 — a remarkable 10× rise from the 2009 financial crisis low of €29.50. Since the ATH, the stock has been in a deep multi-month corrective phase, declining to €203.60 (Nov 2025) before a strong recovery to €269.60 (Apr 2026). The stock is now back in a corrective pullback from the April 2026 high, currently sitting at €242.10 — a level that tests key Fibonacci and SMA support. This analysis presents a comprehensive Elliott Wave count across all timeframes using a full 25-year data history.
Forecasts
🟢 Bullish Primary Scenario — Primary ⑤ continuation
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| W(4) floor | €235–242 | 38.2% retrace of Int (3): ~€203→€269; SMA_18 area |
| T1 (Int 5) | €270–275 | Int (5) = 61.8% × Int (1); ATH retest |
| T2 (Int 5) | €280–290 | Int (5) = Int (1); approach ATH |
| T3 (Int 5 ext) | €300–315 | Int (5) = 1.618× Int (1); new ATH |
| Invalidation | €200.10 | Below Nov 2025 low → Primary ④ alt |
Condition: Hold above SMA_18 (€250.3) / SMA_200 (€232.4). Reclaim of €250 on daily close would signal Intermediate (5) initiating.
🔴 Bearish / Alternate — Primary ④ still unfolding
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| T1 | €235–238 | SMA_200 area / 50% retrace of rally |
| T2 | €218–225 | 61.8% retrace; Jan 2026 lows revisited |
| T3 (worst) | €203–210 | Nov 2025 major low / Primary ④ continuation |
| Invalidation | €270.00 | Break above Apr 2026 high → bull resumes |
Trigger: Daily close below SMA_200 (€232.4) activates bear scenario. Break below €203 (Nov 2025 low) invalidates Primary ⑤ count entirely.
🔴 Price below SMA_18 (€250.3) — bearish short-term
🔴 Price below SMA_50 (€253.1) — bearish medium-term
⚠ SMA_18 crossed below SMA_50 — death cross forming
✓ Price above SMA_200 (€232.4) — macro uptrend intact
⚠ 30min RSI: 29 — deeply oversold; bounce likely
⚠ 1H RSI: 30 — approaching oversold
⚠ Daily RSI: 35.8 — approaching oversold
Forecast Chart
DB1 — Forecast Chart: Bullish & Bearish Scenarios · Daily · As of 3 Jun 2026
Last 150 daily bars + 5-month forward projection | Bull: Int (4) base ~€235–242 → Int (5) targets €270–315 | Bear: Deep Primary ④ → €218–203 | Current: €242.10
Executive Summary
- Wave Position: DB1 is in a long-term Supercycle uptrend from its 2009 ATL (€29.50). The most likely current position is within Primary wave ⑤ of Cycle degree wave I (from 2009), actively unfolding after a Primary ④ correction that bottomed in November 2025 at €203.60. The April 2026 high of €269.60 completed Intermediate wave (3) of Primary ⑤; the stock is now in Intermediate wave (4) correction.
- Key Signal: The 1 Jun 2026 daily session showed a sharp drop from €250.50 to a low of €240.40, closing at €242.10 — below both SMA_18 (€250.3) and SMA_50 (€253.1). The 2 Jun intraday saw a brief bounce to €250.50 before another selloff to the current €242.20, with 30-min RSI hitting 21 (extreme oversold). This is consistent with a Minute wave (v) of Minor C of Intermediate (4) — a final flush toward completion.
- Most Important Target: The €235–242 zone represents the 38.2–50% retracement of Intermediate (3) and sits just above the rising SMA_200 (€232.4). A stabilisation here with bullish RSI divergence would signal Intermediate (4) complete and Intermediate (5) beginning toward €270–290.
- Biggest Risk: If the November 2025 low of €203.60 is breached, the Primary ⑤ count is invalidated. This would imply DB1 is still in a much larger Primary ④ correction — a scenario that would target €178–190 (prior wave iv territory). Confidence in this alternate: Low.
- Confidence: Medium-High — Full 25-year history confirms the Supercycle/Cycle degree structure clearly. The Primary ⑤ count from Nov 2025 is well-supported by indicator patterns. The Intermediate (4) correction is in its late stages based on Fibonacci depth and oversold readings.
Current Position in the Cycle
| Degree | Symbol | Current Wave | Status |
|---|
| Grand Supercycle | [I][II]... | [I] | Active — post-WWII bull market |
| Supercycle | (I)(II)... | (V) | Active — from early 2000s |
| Cycle | I II III... | I | Active — from 2009 ATL (€29.50) |
| Primary | ①②③④⑤ | ⑤ | Active — from Nov 2025 (€203.60) |
| Intermediate | (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) | (4) ★ CURRENT | Correction from Apr 2026 high (€269.60) |
| Minor | 1 2 3 4 5 / A B C | C of (4) | 5-wave impulse down; nearing exhaustion |
| Minute | i ii iii iv v | v of C (est.) | 30min RSI 29 — deeply oversold; final flush? |
🔵 Note on Alternate Primary ④ Count: An alternate interpretation labels the April 2025 ATH (€294.30) as completion of Primary ③, with the entire decline from €294.30 → €203.60 (Nov 2025) as Primary ④ (A-wave down), the rally to €269.60 (Apr 2026) as the Primary ④ B-wave, and the current decline as Primary ④ C-wave targeting €175–185. This alternate is activated if €203.60 (Nov 2025 low) is broken on a closing basis. Current primary count: Primary ⑤ underway.
Current Wave Analysis — Full Cycle Structure
Supercycle / Cycle Degree — 2009 to Present
| Wave | Start | Price | End | Price | Move | Notes |
|---|
| Cycle I — ① | Mar 2009 | €29.50 | Jul 2007* | €87.50 | +197% | *Pre-GFC peak; counted as prior Cycle; ATH at IPO era ~€88 |
| Cycle I — ② | Jul 2007 | €87.50 | Mar 2009 | €29.50 | −66% | GFC crash; deep Cycle ② |
| Cycle I — ③ | Mar 2009 | €29.50 | May 2025 | €294.30 | +898% | ATH; massive 16-year extension ✓ longest |
| Cycle I — ④ | May 2025 | €294.30 | Nov 2025 | €203.60 | −30.8% | Primary ④ low; sharp A-B-C correction ✓ |
| Cycle I — ⑤ | Nov 2025 | €203.60 | In progress | €242.10 | +19% so far | Primary ⑤ active; Int (4) pullback now |
*DB1 IPO was 2001 at ~€37. The true Cycle wave structure begins from the 2003 bear market low (~€31). For clarity this analysis treats the 2009 low as the Cycle I start given the full post-crisis impulse.
Primary ⑤ — Intermediate Degree Structure
| Wave | Start | Price | End / Current | Price | Move | RSI | UO | Confidence |
|---|
| Int (1) | 16 Nov 2025 | €203.60 | 29 Jan 2026 | €214.40 | +5.3% | 49 | 49 | Medium |
| Int (2) | 29 Jan 2026 | €214.40 | ~5 Feb 2026 | €200.10 | −6.7% | 40 | 38 | Medium |
| Int (3) | 5 Feb 2026 | €200.10 | 27 Apr 2026 | €269.60 | +34.7% | 75 | 61 | High ✓ longest |
| Int (4) ★ | 27 Apr 2026 | €269.60 | In progress | €242.10 | −10.2% so far | 35.8 | 39.8 | Medium |
| Int (5) | TBD | ~€235–242 | — | — | Target €270–315 | — | — | Pending |
Intermediate (4) Internal Structure
Pattern: Likely Zigzag (5-3-5) — The decline from €269.60 is impulsive in character. Given the sharp nature of Primary ④ correction (A-B-C flat), Wave ④ at Intermediate degree should alternate — i.e., be a different pattern. A sharper Zigzag or simple ABC is expected.
| Sub-Wave | Start | From € | End / Now | To € | Move | Notes |
|---|
| Minor A ↓ | 27 Apr 2026 | €269.60 | 7 May 2026 | €242.60 | −10.0% | 5-wave impulse down; RSI dropped to 32 |
| Minor B ↑ | 7 May 2026 | €242.60 | 21 May 2026 | €259.70 | +7.1% | 3-wave bounce; low volume ⚠ B trap |
| Minor C ↓ ★ | 21 May 2026 | €259.70 | In progress | ~€242.10 | −6.8% so far | 5-wave impulse down; 30min RSI 29 extreme oversold |
Fibonacci Analysis — Intermediate (3) Retracements (€200.10 → €269.60)
| Fib Level | Price | Status | Significance |
|---|
| 23.6% retrace | €253.2 | Broken ↓ (1 Jun) | Shallow W4 — already violated |
| 38.2% retrace | €242.9 | At/near (€242.10 close) | Primary support — W4 guideline ✓ |
| 50.0% retrace | €234.9 | Not yet reached | Deeper support; also near SMA_200 |
| 61.8% retrace | €226.7 | Well above | Deep W4; still valid |
| 78.6% retrace | €215.0 | Well above | Invalidates Int (4) if reached |
Key finding: Price is sitting precisely at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (€242.9) — the textbook Wave 4 completion zone. The 2 Jun 2026 intraday low of €240.40 also pierced the 38.2% level briefly. RSI and UO readings are at oversold extremes consistent with a wave terminus. This is the highest-probability support zone for Int (4) conclusion.
Fibonacci Targets — Intermediate (5) Projections
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| T1 (min) | €270–275 | Int (5) = 61.8% × Int (1) range (€14.3 × 0.618 = ~€8.8 added to (4) base) |
| T2 (equal) | €278–283 | Int (5) = Int (1) in price points |
| T3 (extended / new ATH) | €300–315 | Int (5) = 1.618× Int (1); exceeds Apr 2025 ATH (€294.30) |
SMA Analysis — Daily
| SMA | Level (1 Jun) | Price vs SMA | Signal |
|---|
| SMA_18 (18-day) | €250.31 | Below by −3.3% | ⬇ Last 3 closes all below → High-prob bearish short-term |
| SMA_50 (50-day) | €253.14 | Below (since 5 May) | ⚠ SMA_18 now crossing below SMA_50 — mini death cross |
| SMA_200 | €232.41 | Above (+4.2%) | ✓ Macro uptrend anchor — must hold on daily close |
SMA_18 Probability Check: All three last daily closes below SMA_18 → High-probability bearish continuation short-term. Bull case requires reclaim of SMA_18 (€250.3) on daily close. The 2 Jun intraday bounce to €250.50 failed to hold — SMA_18 acted as resistance.
Wave Pivot Indicator Table — Primary ⑤ Pivots
| Wave | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO | SMA_18 | Divergence | Confidence |
|---|
| ATH / P③ top | 4 May 2025 | €294.30 | High ⚠vol warning | 84 | n/a | €222 | Bearish ▼ vs prior | High |
| P④ low | 16 Nov 2025 | €203.60 | High (capitulation) | 22 | n/a | €236 | Bullish ▲ | High |
| Int (1) top | 29 Jan 2026 | €214.40 | Moderate | 49 | 49 | €218 | — | Medium |
| Int (2) low | ~5 Feb 2026 | €200.10 | Contracting ✓ | 40 | 38 | €218 | Bullish ▲ | Medium |
| Int (3) top | 27 Apr 2026 | €269.60 | Declining vs 3 ⚠ | 75 | 61 | €259 | Mild bearish ▼ | High |
| Minor A low | 7 May 2026 | €242.60 | High (selling) | 32 | 32 | €261 | — | Medium |
| Minor B top | 21 May 2026 | €259.70 | Low ⚠ B trap | 54 | 58 | €254 | Bearish ▼ | Medium |
| Int (4)C — now | 1–2 Jun 2026 | €242.10 | Elevated | 35.8 | 39.8 | €250 | Building bull ▲? | Medium |
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
| Layer | TF | Current Wave | Direction | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Alignment |
|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary ⑤ / Int (4) | Corrective ↓ | Neutral | €232 (SMA_200) | €250 (SMA_18W) | — Anchor |
| Macro | Daily | Int (4)C impulse ↓ | Down | Bear | €240–243 (38.2% Fib) | €250–253 | — Anchor |
| Precision | 1-Hour | Minor (iii–v) of C | Down | Bear | €240.40 (2 Jun low) | €247–250 | ✓ Aligned; 1H RSI 30 |
| Precision | 30-Min | Minute v of Minor C | Down / bottoming | Caution | €240.40 (spike low) | €248 (SMA_18) | ⚠ 30min RSI 21 — extreme |
Interpretation: All timeframes aligned bearish short-term within the Intermediate (4) correction. However, the 30-min RSI has hit 21 and UO 22 — extreme oversold readings that have historically preceded short-term reversals or stabilisation. The price zone of €240–243 is the first meaningful Fibonacci support (38.2%) and is also where the first volume cluster sits from the March rally. A bounce from €240–243 is high probability in the short term. The real question is whether this bounce becomes Intermediate (5) or just a Minor (ii) or (iv) countertrend move within a continuing C-wave.
Bull confirmation signal: Daily close above €250.3 (SMA_18). Bear confirmation: Daily close below €232.4 (SMA_200).
Precision Layer Signals
| Signal Type | TF | Description | Level | Condition |
|---|
| Watch Zone (bull) | Daily | 38.2% Fib / Int (4)C completion | €240–244 | Hold + RSI bullish divergence on daily |
| Entry Zone | 1-Hour | End of Minute (v) of Minor C | €240–243 | 5-wave C complete; 1H RSI divergence |
| Bounce target | 30-Min | Minuette ii retrace (short-term) | €247–250 | Bounce to SMA_18 on 30min (€248) |
| Bull confirmation | Daily | Reclaim SMA_18 | €250.3 | Close above → Int (5) beginning |
| Bear confirmation | Daily | Break SMA_200 | €232.4 | Deep correction / alt P④ scenario active |
| Hard Stop (bull) | Daily | Below Nov 2025 low | €200.10 | Invalidates Primary ⑤; full recount |
Chart 1 — Weekly (Supercycle / Cycle / Primary)
DB1 — Weekly OHLC | Supercycle · Cycle · Primary Degrees | Feb 2001 – 31 May 2026
1,322 weekly bars (281 plotted) | ATH: €294.30 (4 May 2025) | ATL: €29.50 (8 Mar 2009) | Last weekly close: €242.10 (wk 31 May) | RSI(W): 50.4 | SMA_18(W): €243.5
| Primary Wave | Start | End | From € | To € | Move | Notes |
|---|
| Primary ① | Mar 2009 | ~Jul 2011 | 29.50 | ~56.00 | +90% | Post-GFC recovery impulse |
| Primary ② | Jul 2011 | Jul 2012 | ~56.00 | ~40.00 | −29% | Euro crisis correction |
| Primary ③ | Jul 2012 | Apr 2015 | ~40.00 | ~80.00 | +100% | Strong bull; longest impulse |
| Primary ④ | Apr 2015 | Feb 2016 | ~80.00 | ~70.00 | −13% | Sideways; alternates with ② |
| Primary ⑤ (Cycle III) | Feb 2016 | May 2025 | ~70.00 | 294.30 | +321% | Extended; ATH; Cycle ③ complete |
| Cycle IV | May 2025 | Nov 2025 | 294.30 | 203.60 | −30.8% | Primary ④ correction (A-B-C) |
| Cycle V / Primary ⑤ | Nov 2025 | In progress | 203.60 | 269.60 (Int③) | +32.4% | Int (4) correction now |
Chart 2 — Daily (Primary / Intermediate)
DB1 — Daily OHLC | Primary · Intermediate Degrees | 2001 – 1 Jun 2026
6,464 daily bars (1,077 plotted) | Last: O:245.8 H:250.5 L:240.4 C:242.1 | RSI:35.8 | UO:39.8 | SMA_18:250.3 | SMA_50:253.1 | SMA_200:232.4
Chart 3 — 1-Hour (Intermediate / Minor) — Jan 2026 to present
DB1 — 1-Hour OHLC | Intermediate · Minor Degrees | Jan 2026 – 2 Jun 2026
943 bars (Jan–Jun 2026) | Last: C:242.20 (2 Jun 15:00) | RSI:30.3 | UO:35.1 | SMA_18:247.0 | Price below SMA_18 — bearish momentum
Chart 4 — 30-Minute (Minute / Minuette) — Mar–Jun 2026
DB1 — 30-Min OHLC | Minute · Minuette Degrees | 30 Mar 2026 – 2 Jun 2026 (covers Int (3) top → (4)C current)
744 30-min bars | Last: C:242.20 (2 Jun 15:00) | RSI:29.4 | UO:28.4 | SMA_18:247.2 | Extreme oversold — bounce zone
Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis involves subjective interpretation and multiple valid wave counts may coexist. Past price patterns do not guarantee future results. The DB1 analysis uses full historical data from 2001, enabling a complete multi-degree wave structure assessment. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.