⚠ Key Development Since Prior Report (25 May 2026): ENX has continued declining significantly — from €144.50 (25 May) to €135.70 (1 Jun), a further −6.1% in one week. The ex-dividend date (€3.18) on 25 May explained ~2.1pp; the remaining ~4pp represents genuine selling pressure. The 1 Jun session saw a sharp intraday low of €134.90 on elevated volume (222K vs avg ~180K), piercing the SMA_200 area and breaking critical support. The wave count must now be reassessed.
Forecasts
🟢 Bullish Primary Scenario — Int (4) completing
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| Wave (4) floor | €132–135 | 61.8% retrace of Int (3): €60.70→€153.50 |
| T1 (Int 5) | €148–151 | Int (5) = 61.8% × Int (1); ATH retest zone |
| T2 (Int 5) | €153–155 | Int (5) = Int (1); new ATH |
| T3 (Int 5) | €163–168 | Int (5) = 1.618× Int (1); extended |
| Invalidation | €116.90 | Below Feb 2026 low → Primary ④ alternate |
Condition: Hold above €132 (61.8% Fib); reclaim SMA_18 (~€141.8) to confirm Int (5) starting.
🔴 Bearish / Alternate — Primary ④ still unfolding
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| T1 | €130–132 | Round number / prior congestion |
| T2 | €121–125 | 50% retrace from Primary ④ base to ATH |
| T3 (worst) | €110–116 | Prior Feb 2026 lows; 78.6% retrace Int (3) |
| Invalidation | €151.60 | Break above May 2026 high → resumption |
Trigger: Break below €132 confirms deeper correction; break below €116.90 invalidates entire Primary ⑤ count.
🔴 Price below SMA_18 (€141.8) — bearish
🔴 Price below SMA_50 (€141.9) — bearish
🔴 SMA_18 crossed below SMA_50 — death cross forming
✓ Price above SMA_200 (€132.3) — macro bull intact (barely)
⚠ 30min RSI: 24 — deeply oversold; bounce likely
⚠ 1H RSI: 29.6 — oversold; watch for stabilisation
⚠ Daily RSI: 37.6 — approaching oversold; not yet at extreme
Forecast Chart
ENX — Forecast Chart: Bullish & Bearish Scenarios · Daily · As of 3 Jun 2026
Last 150 daily bars + 5-month forward projection | Bull: Int (4) base ~€132–135 → Int (5) targets €148–168 | Bear: Alt Primary ④ → €121–116 | Current: €135.70
Executive Summary
- Wave Position: ENX is in Primary ⑤ (from Oct 2022 low €62.60), within a deep Intermediate (4) correction from the Jul 2025 ATH (€153.50). The May 2026 rally to €151.50 completed Intermediate wave (B) of (4); the current decline is Intermediate wave (C) — accelerating into a potential completion zone near €132–135 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Intermediate (3)).
- Key Signal: The 1 Jun 2026 session produced a sharp drop to €134.90 intraday (close €135.70), breaking below both SMA_18 and SMA_50 on the daily, with RSI falling to 37.6. On 2 Jun the 30min RSI hit 24 and UO 27 — extreme oversold. This level is consistent with a Fibonacci target zone for Intermediate (4).
- Most Important Target: The €132–135 zone is the primary bull-case support. A hold here with bullish RSI divergence would signal Intermediate (4) completion and the start of Intermediate (5) toward €148–155+. A break below €132 increases risk to the Primary ④ alternate.
- Biggest Risk: If the Feb 2026 low (€110) is violated, the entire Primary ⑤ count is invalidated, implying ENX has been in Primary ④ all along and targets €96–103 (prior P① territory).
- Confidence: Medium — The Intermediate (4) correction structure is consistent with a Flat (3-3-5) pattern; depth is approaching Fibonacci support. However, momentum remains bearish and no reversal signal has fired yet on daily timeframe.
Current Position in the Cycle
| Degree | Symbol | Current Wave | Status |
|---|
| Supercycle | (I)(II)... | (I) | Active — long bull from 2009 |
| Cycle | I II III... | I | Active — from 2014 IPO (€15.62) |
| Primary | ①②③④⑤ | ⑤ | Active — from Oct 2022 (€62.60) |
| Intermediate | (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) | (4) ★ CURRENT | Deep correction from ATH; (C) wave down active |
| Minor | 1 2 3 4 5 / A B C | C of (4) | 5-wave impulse down; 30min nearing exhaustion |
| Minute | i ii iii iv v | iii–iv–v of C | 30min: RSI 24, deeply oversold |
Alternate Count: If the Feb 2026 bounce (€110→€151.5) was only Wave (B) of Primary ④ rather than Intermediate (3), then Primary ⑤ never started. Under this view, ENX is completing Primary ④ and targets €96–103 (prior P① territory). This alternate is activated if €110 (Feb 2026 low) is breached. Confidence in alternate: Low–Medium (would require unusually deep P④).
Current Wave Analysis — Intermediate (4) Structure
Intermediate-Degree Wave Structure (Primary ⑤)
| Wave | Start | Price | End / Current | Price | Move | RSI @pivot | UO @pivot | Volume | Confidence |
|---|
| Int (1) | 13 Oct 2022 | 62.60 | 27 Jul 2023 | 69.30 | +10.7% | 77 | 72 | Above avg | High |
| Int (2) | 27 Jul 2023 | 69.30 | 6 Jul 2023 | 60.70 | −12.4% | 34 | 28 | Contracting | High |
| Int (3) | 6 Jul 2023 | 60.70 | 20 Jul 2025 | 153.50 | +152.9% | 70 | 65 | Highest ✓ | High ✓ longest |
| Int (4) ★ | 20 Jul 2025 | 153.50 | In progress | ~135.70 | −11.6% so far | 37.6 | 33.3 | Elevated (selling) | Medium |
| Int (5) | TBD | ~132–136 | — | — | Target €148–168 | — | — | Pending | Pending |
Intermediate (4) Internal Structure — Flat Correction (3-3-5)
| Sub-Wave | Start | From | End/Current | To | Move | Pattern | Notes |
|---|
| (4)A | 20 Jul 2025 | €153.50 | 3 Feb 2026 | €110.00 | −28.3% | 5-wave ↓ (zigzag A) | RSI hit 20 at low |
| (4)B | 3 Feb 2026 | €110.00 | 21 May 2026 | €151.50 | +37.7% | 3-wave ↑ (B rally) | Near ATH but failed; RSI 63, no new high |
| (4)C ★ | 21 May 2026 | €151.50 | In progress | ~€135.70 | −10.4% so far | 5-wave ↓ impulse | Accelerating; 1 Jun spike low €134.90 |
The Intermediate (4) correction is forming a Flat pattern (3-3-5). The (C) wave should equal or exceed (A) in price terms. (A) = €43.50; (C) parity from (B) top = €151.50 − €43.50 = €108.00. Typical (C) = 61.8%–100% of (A) → €125–€135 target zone. Current price €135.70 is near the upper end of this range.
Fibonacci Analysis — Intermediate (3) Retracements
| Fib Level | % Retracement of Int (3) | Price | Status | Significance |
|---|
| 23.6% | 23.6% | €131.40 | Not yet reached | Shallow W4 |
| 38.2% | 38.2% | €117.90 | Above (intact) | Classic W4 depth |
| 50.0% | 50.0% | €107.10 | Well above | Deep W4 |
| 61.8% | 61.8% | €96.30 | Well above | Invalidation of P⑤ |
Note: The current correction is only at a 19% retracement of Intermediate (3) — technically shallow for a Wave 4. However, the (4)A wave reached 28%, and the flat structure B-back-to-ATH reset the count. The critical Fib support is the SMA_200 (€132.30) which has not yet been convincingly broken on a closing basis (1 Jun intraday spike only).
Fibonacci Targets — Intermediate (5) Projections
| Target | Level | Basis |
|---|
| T1 (min) | €144–148 | Int (5) = 61.8% × Int (1) range |
| T2 (equal) | €148–152 | Int (5) = Int (1) in price |
| T3 (extended) | €163–168 | Int (5) = 1.618× Int (1) |
SMA Analysis — Daily
| SMA | Level (1 Jun) | Price vs SMA | Signal |
|---|
| SMA_18 (18-day) | €141.78 | Below by −4.5% | ⬇ Last 3 closes: High < SMA_18 → High-probability bearish short-term |
| SMA_50 (50-day) | €141.91 | Below (SMA_18 ≈ SMA_50) | ⚠ SMA_18 crossing below SMA_50 — mini death cross |
| SMA_100 | ~€134.2 (est.) | At / near | ⚠ Key dynamic support; watch for close below |
| SMA_200 | €132.30 | Above (barely, +2.6%) | ✓ Macro uptrend anchor — must hold on close |
SMA_18 Probability Check (last 3 ticks): All three daily closes below SMA_18 → High-probability bearish continuation short-term. Bull scenario requires close above SMA_18 (€141.8) to shift momentum. No reversal hint yet (price still declining vs SMA_18).
Wave Pivot Indicator Table
| Wave | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO | SMA_18 | Divergence | Confidence |
|---|
| P④ low | 13 Oct 2022 | €62.60 | Above avg | 34 | 28 | Below | Bullish ▲ | High |
| Int (1) top | 27 Jul 2023 | €69.30 | Moderate | 77 | 72 | Above | — | High |
| Int (2) low | 6 Jul 2023 | €60.70 | Contracting ✓ | 34 | 28 | Below | Bullish ▲ | High |
| ATH / Int (3) top | 17–20 Jul 2025 | €153.50 | RSI 70 — moderate vol | 70 | 65 | Above ✓ | Mild bearish ▼ | High |
| Int (4)A low | 3 Feb 2026 | €110.00 | Elevated | 20 | 18 | Below | Bullish ▲ | Medium |
| Int (4)B top | 21 May 2026 | €151.50 | Below (B trap ⚠) | 64 | 54 | Above | Bearish ▼ (vs ATH) | Medium |
| Int (4)C — now | 1 Jun 2026 | €135.70 | Elevated selling | 37.6 | 33.3 | Below | Building bull ▲? | Medium |
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
| Layer | TF | Current Wave | Direction | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Alignment |
|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary ⑤ / Int (4) | Correction | Neutral | €132 (SMA_200) | €141–142 (SMA_18w) | — Anchor |
| Macro | Daily | Int (4)C impulse ↓ | Down | Bear | €132–135 | €141–142 | — Anchor |
| Precision | 1-Hour | Minor (iii)–(v) of C | Down | Bear | €134–135 | €139–140 | ✓ Aligned |
| Precision | 30-Min | Minuette v of (v) | Down / bottoming | Caution | €134.90 (spike low) | €139.6 (SMA_18) | ⚠ Oversold bounce possible |
Interpretation: All timeframes align bearish for the continuation of Int (4)C. However, the 30-min RSI at 24 and UO at 27 (2 Jun 15:00) are at extreme oversold readings, consistent with a short-term bounce or temporary stabilisation. The 2 Jun session actually saw an early bounce to €141 before reversing sharply again to €136 — the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is intact. A close above €139 on the 30-min/1H would be the first sign of a minor reversal. The daily close must exceed SMA_18 (€141.8) to declare Int (4) complete.
Precision Layer Signals
| Signal Type | TF | Description | Level | Condition |
|---|
| Watch Zone | Daily | Int (4)C completion / SMA_200 retest | €132–136 | RSI divergence + hold above SMA_200 |
| Entry Zone (bull) | 1-Hour | End of Minute (v) of Minor C | €134–136 | 5-wave structure complete; RSI bullish div on 1H |
| Bounce target | 30-Min | Minuette ii retrace (countertrend) | €138–140 | Bounce to SMA_18 on 30min before resuming or reversing |
| Bull confirmation | Daily | Close above SMA_18 | €141.8 | Confirms Int (5) starting |
| Bear confirmation | Daily | Close below SMA_200 | €132.3 | Deeper correction; alt P④ scenario active |
| Hard Stop (bull thesis) | Daily | Below Feb 2026 low | €110.00 | Invalidates Primary ⑤; full count reset required |
Chart 1 — Weekly (Supercycle / Cycle / Primary)
ENX — Weekly OHLC | Supercycle · Cycle · Primary Degrees | Jun 2014 – 31 May 2026
625 weekly bars (215 plotted every 3rd) | Range: €15.62 – €153.50 | Last weekly close: €135.70 (wk 31 May) | RSI(W): 49.4 | SMA_18(W): €137.84
| Primary Wave | Start | End | From € | To € | Move | Notes |
|---|
| Primary ① | Aug 2014 | May 2015 | 15.62 | 37.95 | +143% | IPO momentum wave |
| Primary ② | May 2015 | Jul 2016 | 37.95 | 28.97 | −24% | 61.8% retrace ✓; Brexit fear |
| Primary ③ | Jul 2016 | Feb 2020 | 28.97 | 73.95 | +155% | Longest wave ✓ |
| Primary ④ | Feb 2020 | Oct 2022 | 73.95 | 62.60 | −15% | COVID + rate hike; alternates with ② shape |
| Primary ⑤ | Oct 2022 | In progress | 62.60 | 153.50 (ATH) | +145% | Int (4) correction ongoing |
Chart 2 — Daily (Primary / Intermediate)
ENX — Daily OHLC | Primary · Intermediate Degrees | Jun 2014 – 1 Jun 2026
3058 daily bars (1062 plotted) | Last: O:140.0 H:141.4 L:134.9 C:135.7 | RSI:37.6 | UO:33.3 | SMA_18:141.78 | SMA_50:141.91 | SMA_200:132.30
Chart 3 — 1-Hour (Intermediate / Minor) — From Feb 2026 low
ENX — 1-Hour OHLC | Intermediate · Minor Degrees | 3 Feb 2026 – 2 Jun 2026
745 hourly bars | Last: C:136.10 (2 Jun 15:00) | RSI:29.6 | UO:38.3 | SMA_18:139.21 | Price well below SMA_18 — strong bearish momentum
Chart 4 — 30-Minute (Minute / Minuette)
ENX — 30-Min OHLC | Minute · Minuette Degrees | 20 Mar 2026 – 2 Jun 2026 (covers Int (4)B top → (4)C current)
838 30-min bars | Last: C:136.10 (2 Jun 15:00) | RSI:24.0 | UO:34.9 | SMA_18:139.61 | Extreme oversold
Disclaimer: This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis involves subjective interpretation and multiple valid wave counts may coexist. Past price patterns do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The CDP/Euronext governance lawsuit represents an additional non-technical risk factor not captured by Elliott Wave analysis.