Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) — Elliott Wave Analysis

Senior Technical Analyst Report · v4.4-beta2 · Timeframes analyzed: Weekly · Daily · 1-Hour · 30-Min · Monthly · Report date: 2026-06-13 · As-of close: 2026-06-12 ($359.68)

Instrument details auto-detected from filename and general knowledge — please verify.

Name Alphabet Inc. (Class A)

Symbol GOOGL

ISIN US02079K3059

Exchange NASDAQ

Currency USD

Type Common Stock (Communication Services)

Report Date 2026-06-13

Last close $359.68 (2026-06-12)

Instrument Overview

Alphabet, parent of Google, YouTube and Google Cloud, set a record high of $408.61 on 2026-05-18 and has since corrected ~15%, bottoming at $346.36 on 2026-06-11 — precisely at the 23.6% retracement of the prior advance — before bouncing on clear momentum divergence. The wave structure (a completed five-wave decline) and a stored 2026 cycle forecast (major timing low due late August) jointly frame the path into year-end.

2 · Forecasts — Probability-Ranked Scenarios

Primary count: Cycle wave III bull from the 2022 low; Primary ③ topped at $408.61; Primary ④ is underway. Its first leg — Intermediate (A) — is a complete five-wave Minor impulse bottoming at $346.36 (Jun 11); an Intermediate (B) bounce began Jun 12.

#	Scenario	Dir	Next wave / degree	T1	T2	T3	Invalidation	Prob.
1	(B) bounce → (C) into the late-Aug cycle low → Primary ⑤. (B) rallies toward $370–385 into the ~Jun 22 cycle high, (C) falls into the Aug 25 major cycle low at $300–330 (38.2% Fib $306 central), completing ④; Primary ⑤ then rises inside the +90% cycle up-window	Up (net)	(B), then (C), then ⑤ (Primary)	$383 ⑤=0.618×①	$430 ⑤=①	$506 ⑤=1.618×①	$242.94 61.8% of ③	55%
2	Shallow ④ already complete at the 23.6% level ($346) — the clean Fib touch plus strong bullish RSI/UO divergence means ⑤ is starting now; the Jun 12 rally is the first impulse of ⑤, not a (B)	Up	⑤ (Primary)	$422	$469	—	break below $345 reverts to Scenario 1	25%
3	Bear alternate — Cycle top in place. $408.61 ended Primary ⑤ and Cycle III; the decline is wave A of a larger A-B-C and the Jun 12 bounce is a counter-trend B	Down	A-B-C (Primary/Cycle)	$330	$300	$262	new ATH > $408.61	20%

Probabilities derive from Elliott Wave rule compliance, Volume/RSI/UO confluence, and cycle alignment — not from SMA(18). They sum to 100% across mutually exclusive scenarios and are honest estimates, not guarantees.

Cycle correlation — GOOG 2026 forecast matched (year ✓). The stored file is for GOOG (Alphabet Class C — same company; A/C prices track within pennies, so the timing model applies; flagged as a minor caveat). Extraction confidence: medium (±~5 days).

Active turn: a dominant-cycle High ~2026-06-22 (high confidence; "year's highest dominant peak"), bias down afterward — coincides with the projected (B) bounce top. Both the wave structure (five-down complete + divergence ⇒ a rebound is due) and the cycle agree an upward push should exhaust around Jun 22.
Next major turn: a major Low ~2026-08-25 (high confidence), opening the year's +90% reliability up-window (Aug 25 → Dec 28) — strong confluence with the Primary ④ low → ⑤ launch of Scenario 1, anchoring ⑤ inside the blue window to ~Dec 28.
Conflict ⚠: Scenario 3 (bear) would drive price down through the +90% up-window — a direct directional conflict. No wave rule is breaking, so the higher-reliability cycle window is weighted: Scenario 3 capped at 20%, Scenario 1 raised to 55%.
Add-on timing notes (not price targets): fast-cycle dips ~Oct 29 and ~Dec 3 are candidate add-on entries within a ⑤ advance.

Forecast Chart — 2026 YTD with cycle overlay

Daily YTD candles left of the NOW divider; the three probability-ranked scenario paths projected to the Dec 28 cycle turn; Fibonacci lines; shaded band = +90% cycle up-window (Aug 25 → Dec 28); sub-panel = dominant-cycle phase (timing only, never price) with fast-cycle dips marked.

SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only — no bearing on the count, scenarios, or probabilities): the general trend per SMA(18) is falling (slope down, close $359.68 below SMA_18 $374.15). Over the last 2 daily ticks the lows are below SMA(18): yes; the highs above SMA(18): no. Read as a neutral context cue that price is still beneath the short-term mean during the correction — nothing more.

3 · Executive Summary

Wave position: Cycle III bull intact; Primary ③ complete at $408.61; Primary ④ underway — Intermediate (A) finished at $346.36 (a clean five-wave Minor impulse), Intermediate (B) bounce just begun.
Key signal: double divergence — bearish RSI/UO at the ③ top (RSI 84→70, UO 78→59), then bullish RSI/UO at the (A) low (price 358→346, daily RSI 38.8→40.7; 1h RSI 28 with UO thrust 30→68) — the first leg down is exhausted.
Top target: Primary ⑤ to ~$430 (⑤=①) by year-end, launched from a ④ low near $300–330 around the Aug 25 major cycle low, inside the +90% up-window.
Biggest risk: a sustained break of $243 (61.8% of ③) opens the bear alternate (C toward ~$262) — but that fights the +90% cycle window, hence 20%.
Confidence: HIGH on "③ done / ④ active" (multi-indicator confirmation); MEDIUM on the precise ④ path, where cycle timing is the main guide.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Auto-detected: Intermediate (B) of Primary ④ of Cycle III beginning — i.e. a counter-trend bounce after the (A) low; direction up (short-term), corrective within a down ④.

Degree	Current Wave	Status	Direction
Supercycle	(III) from 2004 IPO base	in progress	Up
Cycle	III from 2022 low ($83.34)	in progress	Up
Primary	④ correction	early — (A) done	Down (net)
Intermediate	(B) of ④	just started ($346→)	Up (counter-trend)
Minor	(A) = 1-2-3-4-5 down	complete at $346.36	Down

Confidence rationale: the ③ top carries bearish RSI and UO divergence plus declining volume vs the (3) peak — multiple confirmations (HIGH). The decline's clean five-wave Minor form, the exact 23.6% Fib touch, and fresh bullish RSI/UO divergence at $346 support "(A) complete" (HIGH). Alternate count: $408.61 = Primary ⑤ / Cycle top (Scenario 3); invalidated by a new ATH. Bull-count invalidation: $242.94 (61.8% of ③); hard rule floor $207.05 (④ may not enter ① territory).

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Primary ③ internal structure (complete)

Wave	Date	Price	Note
② low (start)	2025-04-07	$140.53	54% retrace of ① — rule 1 ✓
(1)	2025-06-10	$181.11	impulse off the low
(2)	2025-06-23	$162.00	sharp zigzag ~47%
(3) extended	2025-11-25	$328.83	longest wave, highest volume — rule 2 ✓
(4) expanded flat	2026-03-30	$272.11	alternation vs sharp (2) ✓; no overlap with (1) — rule 3 ✓
(5) = ③	2026-05-18	$408.61	bearish RSI/UO divergence; volume below (3) peak

Intermediate (A) of ④ — Minor sub-waves (complete)

Minor	Date	Price	Vol / momentum	Note
1	2026-05-20	$382.90	expanding	impulsive break
2	2026-05-27	$393.88	low-vol bounce	fails below prior structure
3	2026-06-03	$358.08	55M (heaviest)	strongest down-leg ✓
4	2026-06-04	$373.25	contracting	no overlap with 1 ✓
5 = (A)	2026-06-11	$346.36	1h RSI 28, UO 30→68	23.6% Fib touch; bullish divergence ⇒ (A) low

Fibonacci framework (analysis_helpers + structure anchors)

Type	Ratio	Price	Role
(B) bounce of (A)	38.2 / 50 / 61.8%	$370 / $377 / $385	(B) target zone into ~Jun 22 cycle high
④ retrace of ③	23.6%	$345.34	(A) bottomed here
④ retrace of ③	38.2%	$306.20	central ④ target; (C)=(A) from (B)≈$379 → $317; (C)=1.382×(A) → ~$293 ⇒ ④ zone $300–330
④ retrace of ③	50%	$274.57	deep ④ ≈ prior (4) low $272
④ retrace of ③	61.8%	$242.94	bull invalidation
⑤ projection (from $306)	0.618 / 1.0 / 1.618 ×①	$383 / $430 / $506	T1 / T2 / T3

Wave-Pivot Indicator Table (daily bundle — Volume/RSI/UO; SMA(18) excluded per method)

Pivot	Date	Price	Volume	RSI	UO	Confidence
(2) low	2025-06-23	$162.0	contracting	~45	~42	High
(3) high	2025-11-25	$328.8	highest ✓	>72	>68	High
(4) low	2026-03-30	$272.1	contracting	24.8	26.0	High
(5)=③ top	2026-05-18	$408.6	declining vs (3) ⚠	70.3 ▼div	59.1 ▼div	Top — confirmed
Minor 3 of (A)	2026-06-03	$358.1	55M expanding ✓	38.8	38.4	High
(A) low	2026-06-11	$346.4	35M, fading	40.7 ▲div	49.6 ▲div	(A) complete

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Layer	TF	Current Wave	Dir	Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance	Align
Macro	Monthly	Cycle III impulse	Up	Bull	$259 (SMA18)	$408	context
Macro	Weekly	Primary ③→④ transition	Up→pause	Bull	$338	$408	anchor
Macro	Daily	④ — (A) done, (B) starting	Down (net)	Neutral	$346 / $306	$370–385 / $394	anchor
Precision	1-Hour	(B) bounce off $346	Up (counter)	Neutral	$346	$370 / $385	✓
Precision	30-Min	(B) sub-waves up	Up	Neutral	$355	$367	✓

Alignment narrative: macro layers (monthly/weekly) remain bullish while the daily is corrective — the classic signature of a Primary-degree pullback inside a larger bull. The intraday layers flipped from down to a sharp up-thrust off $346 (1h UO 30→68), consistent with the start of Intermediate (B). No nesting conflicts: the 30m up-sequence sits inside the 1h (B), inside Primary ④, inside Cycle III. Resolution: a clean 1h five-wave advance toward $370–385 confirms (B); rejection there into the ~Jun 22 cycle high arms the (C) decline toward the Aug cycle low.

Precision Layer Signals

Signal	TF	Description	Level	Condition
Confirmation	1-Hour	5-wave impulse up off $346	> $373	confirms (B) underway
Fade zone	1-Hour	(B) into 38.2–61.8% of (A) + ~Jun 22 cycle high	$370–385	rejection arms (C)
Swing entry zone	Daily	(C) of ④ at Fib cluster + Aug 25 cycle major low	$300–330	holds above $275, ideally $306
Tight stop (B-trade)	30-Min	below the (A) low	$346.4	break = (A) extending toward $345/$306
Invalidation (bull)	Daily	61.8% of ③	$242.94	activates bear alternate

7 · OHLC Chart — 1-Hour

Anchored to the current Intermediate wave: the ③ top and the five-wave Minor decline (1–5) forming Intermediate (A) bottoming at $346.36, then the (B) bounce. The June-11 low shows 1h RSI ~28 and a sharp UO recovery — momentum exhaustion. (Per method, SMA(18) is not used on intraday data.)

Metric	Value
Wave count	Minor 1–5 down = Intermediate (A) of Primary ④, complete at $346.36; (B) up beginning
Key levels	Support $346.4 · Resistance $370 / $385 (B-zone)
Data	2024-06-04 → 2026-06-12, 3,518 bars (chart shows current Intermediate window)

8 · OHLC Chart — Daily

Primary and Intermediate degrees: ② low, Intermediate (1)–(5) of ③ with the extended (3) and expanded-flat (4), the ③ top at $408.61 on bearish divergence, and the active ④ with its Fibonacci grid — note (A) bottoming on the 23.6% line.

Metric	Value
Wave count	③ complete (five clean Intermediate waves, all three rules ✓); ④ in progress, (A) done at $346.36
Indicators (06-12)	RSI 42.4 · UO 51.3 (turning up) · Close $359.68 · SMA_50 $362.3 (being tested)
Key levels	Support $346 / $306 / $275 · Resistance $374 / $394 / $408.6
Data	2004-08-19 → 2026-06-12, 5,489 bars

9 · OHLC Chart — Weekly

Macro anchor: Cycle I (2021 top $150.97), Cycle II (2022 low $83.34), Cycle III in progress with Primary ①–②–③ labelled and ④ retracement levels marked. Weekly RSI 59 / UO 59 — cooling from overbought, structurally healthy.

Metric	Value
Wave count	Supercycle (III) → Cycle III → Primary ③ done / ④ active; weekly impulse intact above ~$338
Key levels	Support $338 / $306 · Resistance $408.61 (ATH)
Data	2004-08-16 → 2026-06-08, 1,139 bars

Monthly and 30-minute files were loaded, validated and used in the count (macro context and Minute-degree (B) sub-waves respectively) but are intentionally not charted, per the v4.4-beta2 chart set (1-Hour, Daily, Weekly only).

10 · Disclaimer

This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.