Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) — Elliott Wave Analysis

Multi-timeframe wave count with Larry Williams (LNL) cycle correlation · As of 12 June 2026 · skill v4.4-beta2

Data note: series updated through 12 Jun 2026 (clean, no gaps). Last close $390.74; the week's low ($382.27) broke below the February low ($384.47). Instrument details auto-detected from filename + web search — please verify.

Instrument Info

Name	Microsoft Corporation
Symbol	MSFT
ISIN	US5949181045
Exchange	NASDAQ (NasdaqGS)
Currency	USD
Type	Common Stock (Large-cap Tech)
Report Date	2026-06-12

Instrument Overview

Microsoft topped at $555.45 (Jul 2025), corrected to $356.77 (Mar 2026), then staged a three-wave rebound to $460.52 (1 Jun). That rebound has fully reversed: price has since broken the $405.21 pivot and the $384.47 February low, closing at $390.74 on 12 June. The decline is unfolding as a Primary Ⓒ toward the $356.77 region — and notably it has pushed through the LNL model's projected 11 June cycle low without reversing, putting wave structure and cycle timing in direct conflict.

2 · Forecasts

Probability-ranked, mutually exclusive scenarios (highest first), derived from Elliott Wave rule-compliance, Volume/RSI/UO confluence, and cycle alignment. The breakdown through two support levels on expanding volume makes the bearish continuation primary; the high-reliability cycle up-window keeps a reversal credible as the main alternate.

#	Scenario	Dir	Next wave (degree)	T1	T2	T3	Invalidation	Prob
1	Bear — Primary Ⓒ to ~$357	Down	Ⓒ of Primary Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ	$356.77	$347	$320	Reclaim $434 → $460	52%
2	Bull — cycle-low reversal	Up	Recovery / new Intermediate up	$425	$456	$479→$500	Sustained < $356.77	33%
3	Complex base / sideways	Range	W-X-Y around $357–417	—	$360–417 chop	—	Break < $347 or > $460	15%

◆ Cycle correlation — LNL `MSFT-2026-cycles.md` (timing only)

The stored 2026 forecast (matched on symbol and year) has one high-confidence window: up, 11 Jun → 8 Oct, reliability 75%, anchored on a major dominant-cycle low dated 11 June. The forecast horizon falls inside this up-window, so it is the relevant one to correlate.

Cycle turn	Date	Type	Dir after	Confluence with wave count
t7	2026-05-15	High	Down	≈ Ⓑ topping zone ($460 on 1 Jun)
t8	2026-06-11	Major Low	Up (75%)	⚠ conflict — price made lower lows through this date; up-window unconfirmed
t9	2026-10-08	High	Down	Bull T3 zone if a low forms and reverses

Fast-cycle add-on dips inside the up-window: 5 Jul, 30 Aug (timing notes only).

⚠ Conflict & resolution. The wave count is bearish inside a 75% up-window — a direct directional conflict. Resolution: the up-window's start (11 Jun) has already been violated by lower lows on expanding volume, so the cycle signal is unconfirmed by price and I weight the confirmed breakdown more for the primary scenario. But a cycle low is a window, not a single day: a low forming near $356.77 in the next 1–3 weeks and reversing would still launch the up-window into the autumn — which is why scenario 2 retains a substantial 33%. Net effect: the cycle lifted scenario 2 above a structure-only read (~20%) but no longer makes it primary, because price invalidated the exact-date low.

YTD Forecast Chart — scenarios + cycle overlay

SMA(18) side note (daily; descriptive only — no bearing on the count, scenarios, or probabilities): the SMA(18) trend direction is falling; the lows of the last two bars are below SMA(18) ($419.4); the highs of the last two bars are not above SMA(18).

3 · Executive Summary

Wave position: Primary Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ correction off the 2025 ATH; the $356→$460 rebound was a 3-wave Ⓑ, and Ⓒ down is in force, having broken $405 and $384.
Key signal: high-volume break through the Feb low ($384) on 11–12 Jun (47M-share down day), RSI 37 (not yet oversold) — impulsive Ⓒ character with room lower.
Top target: $356.77 (Ⓐ low / Ⓒ objective); below that the $347–320 extension zone.
Biggest risk to the view: the 75% cycle up-window — a reversal off ~$357 in the next 1–3 weeks would flip the bias bullish into the autumn.
Confidence: MEDIUM — bear primary at 52%, but the active cycle window keeps a reversal (33%) clearly in play.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Last confirmed pivot: the 11–12 Jun low ($390 close / $382 intraday). Active wave: Primary Ⓒ down, from the 1 Jun Ⓑ high ($460.52), heading toward the $356.77 region. Direction down; the alternate is that Ⓒ completes near $357 and the larger uptrend resumes within the cycle up-window.

Degree	Scheme	Current read	Status
Cycle	I–V	Cycle V from 2009	Mature, MT bull intact
Primary	①–⑤ / Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ	⑤ topped 2025; Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ correction	Ⓒ down, ~70% complete
Intermediate	(A)-(B)-(C)	(A)=$356.77,(B)=$460.52,(C) underway	Targeting $357
Minor/Minute	a-b-c / i-v	5-down from $460; near minor support	Not yet oversold

Alternate count & invalidation. Primary (bear): Ⓒ→$356.77, then $347/$320; invalidated by reclaim of $434 then $460. Alternate (bull): Ⓒ ends ≈$357 (double-bottom with the Mar low) and the cycle up-window drives a rally; invalidated by a sustained break below $356.77.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Sub-wave structure (rebound & breakdown)

Sub-wave	Dates	From → To	Move	Indicator note (Vol/RSI/UO)
(B)-a	27 Mar–22 Apr	356.77 → 432.92	+21.3%	RSI 73 OB
(B)-b	22 Apr–13 May	432.92 → 405.21	−6.4%	RSI 47
(B)-c	13 May–1 Jun	405.21 → 460.52	+13.6%	Vol 54M; RSI 72.9 lower-high → div
(C) down	1 Jun–12 Jun	460.52 → 382.27	−16.9%	Vol expanding (47M); RSI 37; UO 40

Fibonacci framework

Reference	Level	Price	Role
Decline 460→390 · 38.2% retr	resist	$417.1	first bounce cap
· 61.8% retr	resist	$433.7	bull-reclaim test (bear invalid.)
Prior pivots	support	$405.21 / $384.47	both broken
Ⓐ low / Ⓒ target	support	$356.77	primary Ⓒ objective
Ⓒ extensions of last leg	target	$347 / $320	0.618 / 1.0 (bear T2/T3)
Decline 555→357 · 61.8%	resist	$479.55	bull invalidation

Wave-Pivot Indicator Table (Volume / RSI / UO)

Pivot	Date	Close	Volume	RSI	UO	Read
⑤ / ATH	2025-07-31	555.45*	52M	81.7	51.7	Top (bear div)
Ⓐ low	2026-03-27	356.77	38M	22.3	20.2	Oversold low
Ⓑ high	2026-06-01	460.52	54M	72.9	64.4	Lower-high vs Apr → div
Break $405	2026-06-09	403.41	35M	41.8	35.1	Trigger lost
Break $384	2026-06-11	390.34	47M	36.8	33.5	High-vol down day
Latest	2026-06-12	390.74	35M	37.1	40.0	UO ticks up (tentative)

*intraday ATH; that day's close $533.50. The decline carries expanding volume (impulsive Ⓒ), RSI not yet oversold (room toward the Mar-low reading of 22), and only a faint UO uptick on 12 Jun — insufficient to call a bottom.

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Layer	TF	Current wave	Direction	Bias	Support	Resist.	Align
Macro	Weekly	Primary Ⓒ / correction	Down	Bearish (MT bull intact)	357	434 / 480	anchor
Macro	Daily	Primary Ⓒ down	Down	Bearish	357 / 347	417 / 434	anchor
Precision	1-Hour	Minor 5-down	Down	Bearish, extended	382 / 357	405 / 417	✓ daily

Alignment: weekly, daily and 1-hour all point down toward $357 — fully aligned bearish, no timeframe conflict. The only counter-signal is external: the LNL cycle up-window. With all price timeframes aligned down and the cycle's exact-date low already broken, the high-odds plan is to expect the $357 test; the reversal thesis only re-activates on a clear basing pattern + reclaim of $405–417.

Precision-Layer Signals (1-hour / 30-min)

Signal	Level	Condition
Bear continuation	< $382	Opens $357 test
Reversal watch	Reclaim $405	First basing sign
Bull confirmation	Close > $417–434	Promotes scenario 2
Tight invalidation (bull)	< $356.77	Cedes to deeper bear

7 · OHLC Chart — 1-Hour

Item	Detail
Degrees	Intermediate / Minor
Count	(A) $356.77 → (B) $460.52 → (C) ~$382 underway
Key levels	Res $405/$417/$434; Sup $382/$357
Data	2024-06 → 2026-06-12, hourly bundle

8 · OHLC Chart — Daily

Item	Detail
Degrees	Primary / Intermediate
Count	④ $232 → ⑤ $555 → Ⓐ $357 → Ⓑ $460 → Ⓒ?
Key levels	Res $434/$480; Sup $384(broken)/$357
Data	1986 → 2026-06-12 (full history; sampled)

9 · OHLC Chart — Weekly

Item	Detail
Degrees	Supercycle / Cycle / Primary
Count	Cycle V from 2009; Primary ⑤ topped 2025; Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ now
Key levels	ATH $555; 61.8% $480; Sup $357
Macro	SMA_50 > SMA_200 (golden cross intact)

10 · Disclaimer

This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. The Larry Williams / LNL cycle forecast is a third-party timing model used here for correlation only; its reliability figure is historical, not a guarantee. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.