Micron Technology (MU) — Elliott Wave Analysis

Senior-analyst structural review · Report date 19 June 2026 · Engine v5.0-beta1x

2 · Forecasts

Three mutually-exclusive scenarios, ordered highest→lowest probability. All ultimately point the medium-term path down into the high-confidence mid-October cycle low; they differ on whether a final marginal high prints first and on the depth of the decline. Targets are Fibonacci-derived (log basis); T-levels are retracements of Primary ③ (61.54→1149.43) unless noted.

Cycle correlation (MU-2026 forecast, +67% window, reliability medium)

• The dominant-cycle +67% high-confidence UP-window (2025-12-15 → 2026-06-05) has now expired. Its high-confidence peak turn t4 · 2026-05-25 · High → down printed ~3 weeks before price topped — a minor lag, with the cash blow-off pushing to 18 June.
• We now sit at t5 · 2026-06-15 · Low → up (gray, medium), a brief up-bias node, ahead of t6 · 2026-07-15 · High → down. The dominant rhythm then declines into the year's other high-confidence turn, t9 · 2026-10-15 · Low → up (HIGH) — the primary target low for the correction.
• Confluence: the wave read (Intermediate (5) Fib targets met + a 5th-wave RSI/UO divergence) and the cycle model (up-phase exhausted, net decline into October) agree that the medium-term direction is down — this lifts the probability on Scenario PRIMARY and ALT-2.
• Nuance flagged ⚠: the immediate t5 up-bias / t6 mid-July high nodes leave room for one last marginal push before the real decline — which is exactly why ALT-1 (a capped throw-over) retains a meaningful 30%.

YTD daily forecast — NOW divider, probability-ranked scenario paths, Fibonacci levels, and the cycle overlay (shaded +67% up-window, dominant-cycle phase sub-panel, fast-cycle dip markers). Cycle axis is timing/phase only — never price.

SMA(18) side note (daily, descriptive only — no bearing on the count or probabilities): trend rising; the last two bars' lows are not below SMA(18); the last two bars' highs are above SMA(18).

3 · Executive Summary

• Wave position: Minor 5 of Intermediate (5) of Primary ③ — a fifth-of-a-fifth at the top of a parabolic Cycle-degree advance.
• Key signal: bearish RSI & UO divergence at the 18-June high (RSI 66 vs 82 at Minor 3; UO 57 vs 71) — textbook fifth-wave exhaustion; monthly RSI ≈ 92.
• Top target reached: Intermediate (5) has met its 0.618-of-net-(1→3) projection (~1096) and 1.618×(1) (~1043); price (1149) is now through the standard completion zone.
• Biggest risk to the bear case: a brief cycle up-bias (mid-June low → mid-July high) could fund one last marginal high (≤ ~1425) before the turn.
• Confidence: Medium-High that Primary ③ is topping and a multi-week Primary ④ decline into the October cycle low is the dominant path.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Current wave: Minor 5 (in progress) of Intermediate (5) of Primary ③, direction up, started at the Minor-4 low 854.35 (2026-06-09), now at 1149.43 (2026-06-18, provisional). Primary ③ itself began at the Primary ② low 61.54 (2025-04-07).

Confidence rationale: Intermediate (3)/(1) = 2.03 (textbook 2.0) and a clean non-overlapping (4) give a high-quality impulse skeleton; (5) reaching its Fib target with a momentum divergence and an expired bullish cycle window all point the same way. The main uncertainty is timing — fifth waves can throw over.

Alternate count & invalidation: ALT-1 — Minor 5 extends a final leg to ≤ ~1425 before the top (beyond ~1425 the Minor count must be relabeled, as Minor 3 would become the shortest wave). Hard structural invalidation of the bullish impulse: a decline below 311.49 (Intermediate (4) / Minor-5 origin) voids the Primary-③-impulse interpretation.

5 · Current Wave Analysis

Wave-detail table — Intermediate (5) sub-structure (Minor degree)

Fibonacci targets & key levels

• Intermediate (5) completion zone (met): 1.618×(1) ≈ 1043; 0.618×net(1→3) ≈ 1096. Price 1149 is just above both.
• Minor-5 structural cap: ≤ ~1425 (R2 limit — beyond it Minor 3 becomes the shortest wave).
• Primary ④ downside (retracements of 61.54→1149.43): 0.146 ≈ 750 · 0.236 ≈ 576 · 0.382 ≈ 376 · 0.5 ≈ 266.
• Invalidation: warning at 854 (Minor 4); hard at 311.49 (Intermediate (4)).

Wave-pivot indicator table

▼ Higher price at Minor 5 but lower RSI/UO than Minor 3 → high-confidence fifth-wave exhaustion signal. Volume also failed to expand to a new high on the latest leg.

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Narrative: every degree is pointed up but each is flashing late-stage exhaustion; the 30-minute frame has already turned soft into the close. This is an "all-aligned-bullish but terminal" configuration — the higher-confidence action is to treat strength as distribution rather than to chase. Confluence resolves to: top-watch, then position for the Primary ④ decline.

Precision-layer signals (1H / 30M)

7 · 1-Hour Chart