v4-beta2 multi-timeframe count · 1-Hour · Daily · Weekly (+ 30-min & monthly context) · 2026 cycle-forecast correlation | As of 12 June 2026
Data refreshed again — series now runs to 12 Jun 2026. NFLX has continued lower to a $80.34 close (intraday low $79.28), reaching the 0.5×Ⓐ projection. Identifiers from the bundled 2026 cycle file (no year-mismatch). Prices are split/return-adjusted (IPO ≈ $0.11, now ≈ $80); wave structure is unaffected.
Instrument Info
Name
Netflix, Inc.
Symbol
NFLX
ISIN
US64110L1061
Exchange
NASDAQ
Currency
USD
Type
Common stock · Comm. Services (large-cap)
Report date
12 June 2026
Instrument Overview
Netflix is the dominant global subscription-streaming platform and a mega-cap communication-services name. It completed a powerful multi-year advance to an all-time high in mid-2025 and has spent ~12 months correcting. The question now is whether this is a deep pullback before new highs or a multi-quarter top — and a stored 2026 cycle forecast (an independent timing model) lets us cross-check the wave count, with the two converging on a September 2026 low.
1 · Forecasts
Three mutually-exclusive, probability-ranked scenarios (highest first). Probabilities are derived from Elliott-Wave rule compliance, indicator confluence (Volume / RSI / UO), and alignment with the directional cycle window — not from SMA(18), which appears only as the descriptive side-note below.
#
Scenario
Dir
Next wave
T1 / T2 / T3
Invalidation
Prob.
1
Ⓒ low into ~September, then the up-window — divergence-driven bounce now (cycle Jun low) fades into the ~22 Jul cycle high, then a final decline into the 16 Sep major cycle low
↓ then ↑
Ⓒ down → new Primary impulse up
72.42 / 66 / 62.5
wk close > 108.95 (low already in)
55%
2
Bull — Primary ④ complete, ⑤ to new highs — $134 was ③; the $79 area completes ④; the Jun cycle low + bullish RSI/UO divergence starts ⑤ early
↑
Primary ⑤ up
113 / 134 / 160
< 48.50 (hard)
30%
3
Deep Ⓒ = Ⓐ / larger degree — bounce fails fast and $75 breaks; correction one degree larger
↓↓
extended Ⓒ down
55 / 49.8 / 38–48
sustained move > 92 then 108.95
15%
Cycle correlation — NFLX 2026 forecast (Chart 154; year matches, no stale-timing warning). The independent timing model (timing + direction only, never price) corroborates the count:
Turn-timing confluence ✓ — the cycle's deep dominant low of 25 Feb 2026 sits 2 days from wave Ⓐ (23 Feb, $75.01); the early-May cycle high brackets the wave-Ⓑ rollover.
Now ✓ — a shallow, low-confidence cycle low is due ~12 Jun, landing on the last bar. Price at ~$80 with bullish RSI and UO divergence (lower price low vs 3 Jun, higher oscillator lows) fits a near-term bounce — but the cycle says the bigger low is later.
The key alignment ✓ — a major cycle low on 16 Sep 2026 coincides with where wave Ⓒ should terminate, after which a +80%-reliability UP window (direction: up) runs 16 Sep 2026 → 10 Jan 2027.
Directional match, no conflict (⚠ none) — scenario 1 is bearish into the September low and bullish through the up-window, so it points the same way as the window it overlaps. That agreement is why it carries the highest probability; the bullish scenario 2 also aligns with the up-window but front-runs the September low, so it ranks second.
Add-on timing — fast-cycle dips on 5 Nov and 15 Dec 2026 are candidate pullback entries within the post-September uptrend (timing notes, not targets).
SMA(18) side note (daily & weekly; descriptive only — plays no part in the count, scenarios, or probabilities above): the SMA(18) trend is falling on both daily and weekly; over the last 2 bars the lows are below SMA(18) and the highs are not above it (daily 80.34 vs 84.71; weekly 80.34 vs 90.36).
2 · Executive Summary
Wave position: a complete 5-wave Primary advance from the 2022 low topped at the $134.12 ATH (Jun 2025); the market is in a Primary Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ correction with wave Ⓒ active. A 5-wave Minor decline off the $108.95 Ⓑ high looks complete at the $79.28 June-12 low.
Key signal: bullish RSI and UO divergence at the June low, printing on the cycle's June-12 turn — a near-term bounce signal — while the higher-degree correction stays intact.
Top target: the $72.42 shelf (Ⓒ = 0.618 × Ⓐ), with the cycle pointing to the terminal low arriving around mid-September 2026, potentially $62–70.
Biggest risk to the view: a weekly reclaim of $108.95 flips the read bullish (Primary ④ done, ⑤ to new highs > $134).
Confidence:Medium-High that a multi-quarter low is due ~Sept and the move after it is up (+80% window); Medium on exact Ⓒ depth and on whether a bounce comes first.
3 · Current Position in the Cycle
Auto-detected current wave: Primary Ⓒ (corrective), down, from the Ⓑ high $108.95 (16 Apr 2026); on lower degrees a just-completed 5-wave Minor decline (wave (A)/(1) of Ⓒ) at the $79.28 low, with a bounce likely starting.
Degree
Label set
Current wave
Status
Supercycle
(I)(II)(III)(IV)(V)
within (V) since 2009
impulse up, mature
Cycle
I–V
correction after the V top
down
Primary
①–⑤ / Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ
Ⓒ (after ①–⑤ completed at 134.12)
down, active
Intermediate
(1)–(5) / (A)(B)(C)
(A) of Ⓒ complete; (B) bounce next
down → bounce
Minor
1–5
5 of the decline off 108.95 — done at 79.28
bottoming
Confidence rationale (indicator confluence, no SMA-18): wave Ⓐ carried expanding volume and subdivided as a clean zigzag (133.9→114.8→126.3→75.9); the Ⓑ rally to $108.95 was a textbook B-wave trap (hourly RSI 82.9 overbought, contracting weekly volume); the monthly RSI printed 85 at the ⑤ top (bearish divergence vs ③, a high-confidence top tell); and the Feb cycle-low/Ⓐ alignment is independent corroboration. The fresh bullish RSI/UO divergence supports a pause/bounce, not a trend change. Alternate count: $134.12 = Primary ③, current move = Primary ④. Invalidation of the bear primary: weekly close > $108.95. Invalidation of the whole bull impulse: < $48.50 (Primary ① top).
4 · Current Wave Analysis
Item
Value
Active wave
Primary Ⓒ down · Intermediate (A) complete · Minor 5 bottoming
Ⓒ start
$108.95 — 16 Apr 2026
Current
$80.34 (12 Jun close) — intraday low 79.28
Progress
Reached 0.5×Ⓐ ($79.40); next leg targets 0.618×Ⓐ ($72.42) into ~Sept
Duration
~8 weeks for (A) of Ⓒ; cycle implies terminal Ⓒ low ~mid-Sept
Sub-wave structure off the Ⓑ top (1-hour / 30-min)
Minor wave
Pivot
Date
Hourly RSI
Read
1
$90.02
28 Apr
28.1
impulsive first leg down
2
$94.70
1 May
63.0
shallow bounce
3
$85.10
11 May
21.5
extended, momentum low
4
$91.46
19 May
71.4
relief bounce (alternation vs 2)
5
$79.28
12 Jun
~40
terminal leg; bullish RSI/UO divergence vs daily lows
Fibonacci targets
Relationship
Level
Role
Ⓒ = 0.382 × Ⓐ
$86.37
exceeded
Ⓒ = 0.5 × Ⓐ
$79.40
reached (Jun-12 low 79.28)
Ⓒ = 0.618 × Ⓐ
$72.42
primary downside target
Ⓒ = 0.786 × Ⓐ
$62.49
deep target
Ⓒ = 1.0 × Ⓐ
$49.84
scenario-3 equality
Bounce 0.382–0.5 of 108.95→79.28 leg
$90.6 – $94
resistance for the cycle-June bounce
Indicator readings at current pivots (Volume / RSI / UO)
Indicator
Daily now (12 Jun)
Read
RSI_14
~29 (low ~27 on 3 Jun at higher price)
bullish divergence developing
UO
40.4 (up from 31.0 on 5 Jun)
bullish divergence — momentum improving
Volume
~35M, steady
no capitulation spike yet — fits a pause, not climax
Bullish RSI/UO divergence ending Minor 5 at the cycle-Jun low
$79–80
oscillator higher-lows confirmed
Bounce target
1-Hour
(B)/(2) retrace toward Minor-4 / cycle Jul high
$88–92
into ~22 Jul cycle high
Short-continuation
1-Hour
Failure at 91.46 then resume down
$91–92
lower high vs Ⓑ
Bear trigger
Daily
Break 75.01 → opens 62–72, then 50, into Sep
< $75.01
cycle major low ~16 Sep
Bull trigger
Weekly
Reclaim 92 then 108.95
> $108.95
flips to ④→⑤
Alignment: the macro timeframes are bearish while the precision timeframes are turning up off the June low — the textbook "daily-down / intraday-bouncing" picture. The most likely resolution: a counter-trend wave-(B)/(2) bounce into the ~22 Jul cycle high that fails under $91–92, then the final wave-(C)/(3) leg down into the September cycle low. A bounce that instead reclaims $108.95 would force the bullish scenario 2.
6 · OHLC Chart — 1-Hour
Count: a clean 5-wave Minor decline off the $108.94 (B) high — 1=$90.02, 2=$94.70, 3=$85.10, 4=$91.46, 5=$79.28 — i.e. wave (A)/(1) of Ⓒ complete. Levels: resist 91.46; pivot 85.10; target 75.01. Per beta2, SMA(18) is not charted. Data: 1-hour, last ~60 days.
7 · OHLC Chart — Daily
Count: Primary ①(48.50)–②(34.47)–③(106.45)–④(82.11)–⑤(134.12) up from the 2022 low, then Ⓐ(75.01)–Ⓑ(108.95)–Ⓒ(active). All three wave rules hold (② 43% of ①; ③ longest; ④ low 82.11 above ① top 48.50). Levels: resist 90.6/94/108.95; support 75.01/72.42; bull invalidation 48.50. Window: 2022→ (full history on the weekly).
8 · OHLC Chart — Weekly
Count: macro sweep — Supercycle (III) ~$70 (2021), (IV) $16.27 (2022), the Primary ①–⑤ advance to (V)/⑤ $134.12, and the Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ correction now underway. Levels: ATH 134.12; Ⓐ 75.01; 2022 low 16.27; bull invalidation 48.50. Data: full history, 1,256 weekly bars.
9 · Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist; the cycle forecast is an independent timing model (timing/direction only, not price) and may be wrong. The supplied data is split/return-adjusted and may differ from nominal quotes. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.