Novo Nordisk A/S — Elliott Wave Analysis v4·beta2

2 · Forecasts

The 5-wave Intermediate impulse down from €138.48 → €30.24 is complete. Price is now in the early stages of a recovery: Minor wave 1 ran €30.24 → €40.95 (ending 11 May 2026 on the hourly); Minor wave 2 corrected to a 54%-deep pullback low of €35.51 on 9 June 2026 (within the normal 38.2–61.8% retrace zone); and the sharp rally on June 10–12 (€35.51 → €38.50, accompanied by a surge in volume and RSI/UO crossing 50 on the 30-min) looks like the launch of Minor wave 3.

Probability-ranked scenario table

Scenario rationale

• Bull (58%): All three Elliott Wave rules are satisfied on the Intermediate 5-down. The W1 (€30.24→€40.95) was a clean 5-wave impulse on the 1h. Wave 2 retraced 54% — within the classic 38.2–61.8% zone — with contracting volume and RSI/UO holding above 30 (healthy correction, not an impulse). June 10 volume expansion + RSI/UO surging back above 50 on 30-min is consistent with W3 initiation. Volume at the bounce low (Jun 9, ~184k) is well below the May 6 W1-top volume (1.07M), confirming corrective character. Macro: RSI 54 and UO 58 on daily are in "early impulse" territory.
• Bear (32%): The entire Intermediate (1)–(5) could be only wave Ⓐ of a larger Primary or Cycle correction. In this view the current bounce is wave Ⓑ (ceiling €41.70–€54.9), and wave Ⓒ = wave Ⓐ would target €20–26. The death cross (SMA_50 still well below SMA_200) maintains a macro headwind. This count requires the bounce to fail below €54.9 and breach €30.24.
• Extended W2 flat (10%): A 3-3-5 expanded flat for W2 would see the current bounce (a) reverse to a b-wave low near or below €35.51, then an impulse c-wave rally to complete W2 higher. Low probability because the June 10 launch already looks impulsive (gap up, volume, RSI/UO surge).

Cycle correlation

No cycle forecast file exists for NOV in the skill's references/cycles/ library. Cycle correlation is therefore skipped for this analysis. Probabilities are derived solely from EW rule compliance and indicator confluence.

Forecast Chart

History = YTD 2026 daily bars. Right of the NOW divider: ● Bull W3 path (58%) · ● Bear Ⓑ→Ⓒ path (32%) · Fibonacci lines in purple/amber.

3 · Executive Summary

• Macro position: A 25-year Cycle-degree five-wave bull market (€1.13 → €138.48) is now in a large-degree correction. The Intermediate 5-wave decline (€138.48 → €30.24, −78%) is complete. The €30.24 low is the key structural anchor for all scenarios.
• Key signal — updated: NEW Minor wave 2 bottomed at €35.51 on 9 June 2026 (54% retrace of W1, within normal zone). The June 10 breakout bar (volume surge, 30-min RSI/UO crossing 50) is the first impulsive signature of Minor wave 3 launching. This is the material change from the previous report (1 June 2026), which had W2 in progress.
• Most important targets: Bull W3: T1 €46.97 (=W1), T2 €54.05 (1.618×W1 from base €35.51). Medium-term macro resistance: €55.96 (23.6% retrace of full ATH→low), €71.73 (38.2%).
• Biggest risk: A daily close below €34.13 (61.8% W1 retrace) would invalidate the W3-up thesis and open the bear Ⓑ/Ⓒ scenario. A confirmed break below €30.24 triggers the full bear count (Ⓒ down to €20–26).
• Confidence: Medium-High (58%/32% split). The primary bull count has strong indicator support and clean wave structure, but the macro context (death cross, price still far below SMA_100/200) warrants respect for the bear alternate. The next 2–4 weeks are critical: a sustained advance above €41.70 shifts probability decisively to the bull.

4 · Current Position in the Cycle

Degree hierarchy

5 · Current Wave Analysis

The Intermediate 5-wave decline (completed) — €138.48 → €30.24

EW Rules check: ✓ W2 retraced 59.7% of W1 (<100%); ✓ W3 (107pts) is the longest wave, not shortest; ✓ W4 high (€71.53) never re-entered W1 price zone (€106–€138.48). Count is valid.

Indicator confluence: Wave (3) had the highest volume (898k) and the lowest RSI (25) — a volume-exhaustion blow-off. Wave (2) had the lowest volume (25k), confirming corrective character. A clear bullish RSI divergence formed at the wave (5) / Ⓐ low: RSI 29 vs RSI 25 at wave (3), despite price making a new low — a high-confidence exhaustion signal.

Minor wave structure off the €30.24 low UPDATED

Wave 2 depth analysis

Minor Wave 3 Fibonacci targets

W1 size: €40.95 − €30.24 = €10.71. Targets computed from W2 base €35.51.

Wave Pivot Indicator Table

Indicator confluence at W2 low confirmation

• Volume: June 9 volume (184k) was well below the May 6 W1 peak volume (1.07M) and below the W1 top (315k) — classic corrective character. ✓
• RSI_14: Daily RSI at W2 low (41) stayed above 30, consistent with a healthy correction (not a new impulse down). No RSI breakdown below 30 → the trend is not resuming downward. ✓
• UO: Daily UO at W2 low (42) held above 30. The June 10 bar saw UO expand to 52 on the daily, crossing the neutral 50 level for the first time since May — a momentum confirmation of direction change. ✓
• SMA_50: Price just reclaimed SMA_50 (€36.4) with the June 10 bounce — the first time since late April. This provides medium-term trend support.
• 30-min divergence: At the June 9 intraday low (€35.51), 30-min RSI reached only ~31 vs ~16 at the June 2 swing low (higher RSI on lower price = bullish divergence on the 30-min). ✓

6 · Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Alignment interpretation: All three active timeframes (daily / 1h / 30m) are now pointing up, with the weekly providing the macro corrective backdrop. This is the strongest possible near-term bull alignment — daily and intraday all pointing the same direction — though the weekly macro context remains bearish (price still well below SMA_100 and SMA_200 on the weekly). The practical implication: the bull near-term trade has all three precision layers supporting it, but the multi-month trajectory is still contested between Ⓑ bounce and genuine new bull leg.

Precision Layer Signals

7 · OHLC Chart — 1-Hour