Claude Opus 4.8 · Report generated Saturday, 20 June 2026, 15:10 EEST (Iași, RO)
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| Name | SAP SE |
|---|---|
| Symbol | SAP (SAP.XETRA / SAP.DE) |
| ISIN | DE0007164600 |
| Exchange | XETRA (Deutsche Börse) |
| Currency | EUR |
| Type | Equity — Large-cap software |
| Report date | 2026-06-20 (last bar 2026-06-19, close €134.14) |
SAP SE is Europe's largest software company and the world's leading vendor of enterprise applications, now built around a fast-growing cloud-subscription model. After a powerful multi-year advance that peaked at an all-time high of €283.50 in February 2025, the shares have undergone a deep, software-sector-wide correction — amplified by a sharp guidance-driven gap on 29 Jan 2026 — leaving price near €134, roughly 53% below the peak. The wave structure of that decline, and whether it is now exhausting, is the focus of this report.
The decline from the February-2025 all-time high counts cleanly as a Primary-degree A-B-C correction, with the final five-wave leg (Intermediate wave (5) of wave Ⓒ) now in its terminal phase. Price is making marginal new lows while momentum makes higher lows — a textbook bullish divergence that warns the correction is close to a bottom. The scenarios below are ranked highest → lowest probability.
| Scenario | Dir. | Next wave | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottoming / reversal up Ⓒ completes ~133; multi-month rebound |
Up | Primary Ⓓ / new impulse ① | €169 (23.6%) | €191 (38.2%) | €209 (50%) | Weekly close < €120 | 50% |
| One more low, then reversal (5) extends to 123–126 confluence first |
Down→Up | (5) ext → reversal | €125 then €169 | €191 | €209 | Weekly close < €112 | 32% |
| Correction deepens larger complex / running structure |
Down | extension of Ⓒ | €119 (break) | €112 | €104 | Recovery > €168 before new low | 18% |
No stored cycle-forecast file exists for SAP in the reference library, so no dominant-cycle timing overlay was applied. Scenario probabilities are derived from Elliott Wave rule compliance and indicator confluence (Volume / RSI_14 / UO) only.
SMA(18) side note (daily, descriptive only — no bearing on the count or probabilities): the daily SMA(18) trend direction is falling; the lows of the last two daily bars are below SMA(18) (€150.5); the highs of the last two daily bars are not above SMA(18). The weekly SMA(18) reads the same (falling; lows below, highs not above).
SAP is in a corrective downtrend at Primary degree, nested within a still-intact higher-degree (Cycle) bull market that began at the 2002 low (€9.95) and last printed a Primary fifth-wave top at €283.50. The active wave is Intermediate (5) — the final sub-division of Primary Ⓒ — pointing down, in progress since the wave-(4) high of €178.3 (10 Feb 2026).
| Degree | Active label | Direction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Wave III (bull, from 2002 low) | Up | Intact; in a corrective pause |
| Primary | Wave Ⓒ (of A-B-C from ATH) | Down | Extending / late |
| Intermediate | Wave (5) of Ⓒ | Down | Terminal — current |
| Minor | Wave 5 of (5) | Down | Completing w/ divergence |
Confidence rationale: the five-wave shape of Ⓒ satisfies all three wave rules (wave 3 is the longest and highest-volume; wave 4 does not re-enter wave-1 territory; wave 2 holds below the origin). The catalyst-driven 29-Jan-2026 gap aligns with the heart of wave (3), and the bullish RSI/UO divergence at the (5) low supports a maturing terminal wave. Confidence is held at Medium rather than High because the fifth wave's internal structure is overlapping (diagonal-like) and a marginal extension cannot be ruled out.
Alternate count & invalidation: the move from €283.50 may instead be an unfinished double-three (complex correction), in which the current weakness is wave (3) or an extending fifth with one more decline due toward €112–123. Invalidation of the bottoming thesis: a decisive weekly close below €120 (under the 78.6% bull retrace and the Ⓒ = 2×Ⓐ projection) re-weights probability toward the deeper-correction path.
Wave (5) of Ⓒ is sub-dividing into a choppy, overlapping five (Minor 1-5) consistent with an ending-diagonal-style terminal pattern: 178.3 → 139.4 (1) → 156.2 (2) → 136.3 (3) → 167.9 (4) → 132.8/134.1 (5?). The June-1 rebound to €167.9 was the wave-4 bounce; the subsequent marginal new low is the suspected fifth.
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Active wave | Intermediate (5) of Primary Ⓒ (Minor 5 in progress) |
| Direction / start | Down · from €178.3 high (10 Feb 2026) |
| Current price | €134.14 (close 19 Jun 2026); intraday low €132.2 |
| Sub-waves done | Minor 1–4 complete; Minor 5 underway (marginal new low w/ divergence) |
| Downside targets | €125.8 (Ⓒ=2×Ⓐ) · €123.2 (78.6% bull retrace) — confluence floor |
| Reversal targets | €169.4 (23.6%) · €191.2 (38.2%) · €208.8 (50%) of the Ⓐ-Ⓒ decline |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Invalidation | Weekly close < €120 |
| Pivot | Date | Price | Volume | RSI_14 | UO | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ⓐ-start (ATH) | 2025-02-13 | €280.3 | — | — | — | Cycle top |
| Ⓐ low | 2025-04-09 | €210.2 | norm | — | — | First impulse down |
| Ⓑ high | 2025-06-06 | €272.4 | 0.92M | 65.1 | 59.3 | Deep B (low-vol trap) |
| (1) low | 2025-09-16 | €210.9 | 1.76M | 26.9 | 29.0 | Oversold |
| (2) high | 2025-10-23 | €242.0 | 3.17M | 61.5 | 65.9 | ~0.50 retrace |
| (3) low | 2026-01-29 | €164.6 | 15.85M | 23.2 | 34.6 | Capitulation / catalyst gap |
| (4) high | 2026-02-10 | €178.3 | 3.98M | 41.9 | 57.1 | Shallow (alternation) |
| (5) low? | 2026-06-19 | €134.1 | 7.12M | 35.8 | 28.1 | Bullish divergence ▲ |
Indicator confluence: Wave (3) carried the highest volume of the sequence (15.85M) and the deepest RSI — confirming it as the extended third. Wave (5) is printing higher RSI lows against lower price lows (bullish divergence) on still-elevated volume — the high-confidence "fifth-wave exhaustion" pattern.
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Dir. | Bias | Key support | Key resist. | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary Ⓒ | Down | Bearish, maturing | 123–126 | 169 / 191 | ✓ |
| Primary | Daily | Intermediate (5) | Down | Bearish, terminal | 132 / 123 | 168 / 178 | ✓ |
| Trigger | 1-Hour | Minor 5 | Down | Oversold + divergence | 132 | 145 / 168 | ✓ |
| Micro | 30-Min | Minuette v | Down | Oversold | 132.8 | 146 | ✓ |
Alignment narrative: every timeframe points the same way — down — but each is simultaneously oversold and diverging. That is the signature of a trend in its final stage rather than a fresh one: aligned bearish in direction, yet collectively exhausting. A reversal confirmation (e.g. a daily close back above €145, then €168) would flip the lower layers bullish first.
| Setup | Entry zone | Targets | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reversal long (counter-trend → with higher degree) | €132–126 (or 123–126 spike) | €145 → €168 → €191 | below €120 (weekly) | 30-min/1-h higher-low + reclaim of €145; RSI cross > 50 |
| Continuation short (only if support fails) | break & hold < €123 | €112 → €104 | back above €145 | weekly close < €120 |
Current 1-h reads RSI 29.1 / UO 37.1; 30-min RSI 30.6 / UO 33.5 — both oversold, consistent with a low forming rather than a fresh breakdown.
Wave count: the hourly resolves the internal structure of Intermediate wave (5) as Minor 1-2-3-4-5 (178.3 → 139.4 → 156.2 → 136.3 → 167.9 → 132.8). The overlapping June-1 bounce to €167.9 (Minor 4) gives the leg an ending-diagonal character. Key levels: support €132 (wave-5 low), resistance €145 then €168. Data: 4,652 bars, 04 Jun 2024 → 19 Jun 2026; RSI 29.1, UO 37.1.
Wave count: the full A-B-C correction is visible — Ⓐ (283→210), the deep Ⓑ rebound to €272, then the five-wave Ⓒ decline labelled (1)-(5). Wave (3) carries the heaviest volume (the 29-Jan gap), wave (4) is shallow (alternation), and wave (5) is making its terminal low. Key levels: support €132 / €123, resistance €168 / €178 / €191. Data: 7,214 bars, 1998 → 2026; RSI 35.8, UO 28.1, price below SMA50/100/200.
Wave count: the macro view shows the long Cycle-degree bull from the 2002 low into the €283.50 Primary top, followed by the sharp Primary A-B-C correction now reaching the €123–157 retracement band of the entire 2022–25 advance. Price has fallen below the rising SMA200 — the deepest stretch of the correction. Key levels: the €123–126 confluence is the major support shelf; reclaiming €169–191 would signal the correction is over. Data: 1,472 weekly bars, 1998 → 2026.