Multi-timeframe Elliott Wave analysis covering Monthly context through 30-minute intraday structure. Five timeframes loaded: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 1-Hour, 30-Minute. Cycle forecast from the 2026 S&P 500 E-minis (ES) cycle chart incorporated.
| Scenario | Direction | Next Wave / Degree | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — Primary ③ Continuation Minor 2 complete at 7,237; Minor 3 underway |
↑ UP | Minor 3 of Int (3) → Minor 4, 5 → Int (4), Int (5) |
8,534 | 9,132 | 9,452 | Below 6,920 (Int 1 top) |
65% |
| Extended Consolidation / Deep Int (4) Minor 2 extends; deeper pullback before resumption |
↓ SIDEWAYS/DOWN | Int (4) correction → zigzag / flat → then Int (5) rally |
6,971 | 6,557 | 8,200 (eventual) | Below 6,147 (Primary ① top) |
25% |
| Bear — Primary ③ Topped at 7,621 W3 = only 1.05× W1; Primary ④ A-B-C underway |
↓ DOWN | Primary ④ A-B-C → deep pullback → then Primary ⑤ |
6,557 | 5,800 | 5,400 | Above 7,621 (new ATH) |
10% |
The 2026 S&P 500 E-minis cycle chart carries a high-confidence (+78% reliability) net-up window spanning March 18 – September 1, 2026. Today's date (June 14) sits squarely inside this window. The dominant-cycle low flagged near March 18 aligns precisely with the Intermediate (2) low in the price data at March 30, 2026 (6,316.91) — the single strongest corroborating timing signal for the primary bull scenario.
The cycle model shows an oscillatory internal structure: a swing-high near May 12 (cycle t5, matching the June 2 ATH closely), a swing-low near July 26 (cycle t6, mapping to a mid-summer add-on opportunity), and the dominant peak near September 1, 2026 (cycle t7). A fast-cycle dip is also flagged around July 13. Scenarios aligned with the up-window's direction earn higher probability; the 10% bear scenario directly contradicts the +78% window.
Cycle data is timing and direction only — never price. EW rules take precedence over cycle timing where they conflict.
The S&P 500 is in Cycle III of Supercycle (V), a secular bull that began at the March 2009 low (666.79). Within Cycle III the current Primary degree impulse — Primary ③ — launched from the April 2025 low (4,835.04), itself the termination of a sharp two-month tariff-shock correction. At Intermediate degree, Int (3) is in progress from the March 30, 2026 low (6,316.91), following a complex five-month Int (2). Within Int (3), Minor 1 completed June 2, 2026 at the 7,620.90 ATH; Minor 2 appears to have bottomed June 9 at 7,237.85, with recovery underway.
| Degree | Wave | Direction | Start Date | Start Price | End / Status | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle | (V) | ↑ Up | 1982 | ~101 | Ongoing | — |
| Cycle | III | ↑ Up | Mar 9, 2009 | 666.79 | Ongoing | — |
| Primary | ① | ↑ Up | Oct 13, 2022 | 3,491.58 | Feb 19, 2025 @ 6,147.43 | 3,491 / 6,147 |
| Primary | ② | ↓ Down | Feb 19, 2025 | 6,147.43 | Apr 7–8, 2025 @ 4,835.04 | 49.4% retrace ✓ |
| Primary | ③ | ↑ Up | Apr 7, 2025 | 4,835.04 | IN PROGRESS ATH 7,620.90 | Inv: 6,147.43 |
| Intermediate | (1) | ↑ Up | Apr 8, 2025 | 4,982.77 | Oct 29, 2025 @ 6,920.34 | 1,937.57 pts |
| Intermediate | (2) | ↓ Down | Oct 29, 2025 | 6,920.34 | Mar 30, 2026 @ 6,316.91 | 31.1% retrace ✓ |
| Intermediate | (3) | ↑ Up | Mar 30, 2026 | 6,316.91 | IN PROGRESS | Inv: 6,920.34 |
| Minor | 1 | ↑ Up | Mar 30, 2026 | 6,316.91 | Jun 2, 2026 @ 7,620.90 | 1,303.99 pts |
| Minor | 2 | ↓ Down | Jun 2, 2026 | 7,620.90 | LOW 7,237.85 (Jun 9)? | Inv: 6,316.91 |
Intermediate (3) launched from March 30, 2026 (6,316.91). Minor 1 ran 1,304 points over ~9 weeks to the June 2 ATH (7,620.90), driven by expanding volume and RSI climbing from ~22 to 75. Minor 2 pulled back to 7,237.85 on June 9 (29.4% of Minor 1, with RSI touching 17–23) before recovering to 7,431 (Jun 12, RSI 52.7 / UO 48.4). A close above 7,621 would confirm Minor 3 is underway.
| Wave | Degree | Date | Price | Vol vs Prior | RSI_14 | UO | Confidence | Rule / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① start | Primary | Oct 13, 2022 | 3,491.58 | Expanding | 36.4 | 35.5 | HIGH | Bear market low; Rule 1 anchor |
| ① top | Primary | Feb 19, 2025 | 6,147.43 | High | 61.2 | 75.7 | HIGH | +2,656 pts over 28 months |
| ② low | Primary | Apr 7–8, 2025 | 4,835.04 | Panic spike | 21.4 | 33.8 | HIGH | 49.4% retrace ✓; UO bull div ▲ ✓ |
| Int(1) top | Intermediate | Oct 29, 2025 | 6,920.34 | Declining | 68.6 | 66.0 | HIGH | +1,938 pts; RSI div vs ① peak ▼ |
| Int(2) low | Intermediate | Mar 30, 2026 | 6,316.91 | Contracting | 20.8 | 21.7 | HIGH | 31.1% retrace; complex W-X-Y; RSI bull div ▲ ✓ |
| M1 top | Minor | Jun 2, 2026 | 7,620.90 | Highest in run | 75.0 | 65.3 | HIGH | +1,304 pts; RSI overbought; UO bear div potential ▼ |
| M2 low? | Minor | Jun 9, 2026 | 7,237.85 | Moderate | 17–24 | 27–32 | MEDIUM | 29.4% retrace; deeply oversold; recovering Jun 12 |
| M3 ▶ | Minor | Jun 9 onwards | 7,431.46 (Jun 12) | Expanding? | 52.7 | 48.4 | MEDIUM | Possible M3 start; needs close > 7,621 to confirm |
Minor 3 Fibonacci targets (from M2 low 7,237.85): T1 = 8,534 (= M1 equality, 1,304 pts); T2 = 9,276 (1.618× M1); T3 = 9,734 (2.0× M1). These converge with Int (3) T1 at 9,452 and Primary ③ T1 at 9,132.
Invalidation: A daily close below 7,237.85 extends Minor 2 toward the 38.2% level (7,123) or 50% level (6,969). A move below 6,920 invalidates the Int (3) count entirely.
| Layer | Timeframe | Current Wave | Direction | Bias | Key Support | Key Resistance | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Cycle III / Primary ③ | ↑ Bullish | Strong bull | 4,835 | 9,132 (T1) | ✓ BULL |
| Strategic | Weekly | Primary ③ in progress | ↑ Bullish | Strong bull | 6,317 / 6,148 | 7,621 / 9,132 | ✓ BULL |
| Tactical | Daily | Int (3) / Minor 2 maturing | ↑ Bullish | Moderate bull | 7,238 / 7,123 | 7,621 ATH | ⚡ WATCH |
| Execution | 1-Hour | Minor 2 corrective | ↑ Recovering | Neutral → bull | 7,258 / 7,238 | 7,500 / 7,621 | ⚡ CONFIRMING |
| Precision | 30-Minute | Minute iv/v of Minor 2? | ↑ Recovering | Tentative bull | 7,363 / 7,257 | 7,456 / 7,500 | ⚡ CONFIRMING |
Alignment narrative: Monthly, Weekly, and Daily are aligned bullishly within Primary ③ of Cycle III. The 1-hour and 30-minute layers show recovery from the June 9 low but have not yet confirmed Minor 3. Full cross-timeframe bull alignment requires a daily close above 7,621 (the June 2 ATH). Until then, intraday traders should treat the recovery as corrective-until-confirmed.
| Signal | Entry Zone | Target | Tight Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 3 long (early) | 7,238–7,400 (current) | 8,534 (T1), 9,132 (T2) | Below 7,237 | H1 RSI > 55, UO > 50, close > 7,500 |
| Minor 3 long (confirmed) | Breakout above 7,621 | 8,534 (T1), 9,132 (T2) | Below 7,500 | ATH breakout + expanding volume |
| Deep Minor 2 hedge | Daily close below 7,237 | 7,123 (38.2%), 6,969 (50%) | Above 7,350 | Daily close < 7,237 + RSI < 40 |
Wave count: The 1-hour chart shows the full Primary ③ from the April 2025 low. Int (1) delivered a clean 5-wave impulse to 6,920 (October 2025). Int (2) formed a complex five-month sideways-to-down structure, bottoming at 6,317 on March 30, 2026. Minor 1 of Int (3) is the sustained 9-week rally to the June 2 ATH. The Minor 2 pullback (7,621 → 7,238, June 5–9) shows elevated intraday volume and RSI reaching 17 at the June 9 afternoon low — classic exhaustion consistent with corrective termination.
Key levels: Int (2) low 6,317 · Int (1) top / Int (4) invalidation 6,920 · Minor 1 peak 7,621 · Minor 2 candidate low 7,238.
Wave count: The daily chart anchors the Primary degree count. Primary ① was a 28-month, 2,656-point rally ending at the February 2025 ATH. Primary ② was a sharp two-month drop (49.4% retrace — a zigzag, setting up classic alternation for Primary ④). Primary ③ is ongoing; the daily chart clearly resolves Int (1), the complex Int (2) consolidation, and the early stages of Int (3). SMA 200 (6,882) is rising well below price, confirming the macro bull trend intact.
Indicator notes: Bullish divergence on RSI and UO at the April 2025 Primary ② low provided a high-confidence reversal signal. At the June 2026 ATH, RSI peaked at 75 with mild volume divergence — consistent with the Minor 1 top label. RSI at 52.7 on June 12 is neutral-recovering, typical of a corrective wave approaching its end.
Macro wave count: The weekly chart anchors the entire secular bull. Cycle III from the 2009 low remains intact. The 2022 bear market (Primary ② at Cycle sub-wave level) ended at 3,491.58, retracing 27.5% of the prior advance — shallow and consistent with a powerful third-wave environment. The weekly SMA 200 is rising strongly, well below current prices.
SMA(18) weekly side note: Trend direction: rising (SMA 18 = 7,026.06). Last two weeks' lows are not below SMA(18). Last two weeks' highs are above SMA(18). — Descriptive only.