S&P 500 (^SPX) Elliott Wave Analysis
Report date: 2026-06-15. Price data as of 2026-06-12. Instrument details auto-detected from filename and web search - please verify.
Instrument Info
| Name | S&P 500 Index |
|---|---|
| Symbol | ^SPX / SPX |
| ISIN | Index benchmark - no single security ISIN used in this report |
| Exchange / Administrator | S&P Dow Jones Indices |
| Currency | USD index points |
| Type | Equity index |
Instrument Overview
The S&P 500 is a U.S. large-cap equity index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. The bundle files are treated as index-price data in USD index points; volume is aggregate exchange volume in the daily and higher files and usable intraday volume in the h1/mi30 layers.
Reference source: S&P DJI S&P 500 page.
Forecasts
| Scenario | Direction | Next wave + degree | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary 5 extends | Up | Minor 4 -> Minor 5 of Intermediate (3)/(5) | 7,609.78 | 7,638.93 | 8,392.20 | Below 7,266.99 delays; below 6,343.72 invalidates active Minor 3/5 | 45% |
| Minor 4 pullback | Down first | Minor 4 retraces the Mar-Jun rally before another high | 7,310.99 | 7,126.15 | 6,976.75 | Direct break above 7,752.79 | 35% |
| Primary 5 top | Down | Primary 5 complete; larger A wave begins | 6,606.26 | 6,296.27 | 6,071.58 | Sustained break above 8,392.20 | 20% |
Cycle correlation: No matching SPX 2026 cycle file was found in the skill cycle store. I did not substitute ES or NASDAQ cycle files, so no cycle timing overlay or cycle-based probability adjustment was applied.
SMA(18) side note: daily trend falling; last two daily lows below SMA(18): true; last two daily highs above SMA(18): false. Weekly trend rising; monthly trend rising. This note is descriptive only and did not affect the wave count or probabilities.
Executive Summary
- Primary count: SPX remains in a valid Primary 5 advance from the 2025 Primary 4 low, inside a larger bull cycle from 2022.
- Current position: the June 2026 high at 7,609.78 is either Minor 3 of an extended fifth wave or a completed Primary 5 top.
- Top upside targets: 7,609.78 retest, 7,638.93-7,752.79 short-term extension band, then 8,392.20 on a stronger daily extension.
- Biggest risk: a sustained break below 7,266.99 opens 7,126.15 and 6,976.75; below 6,343.72 invalidates the active Minor 3/5 extension count.
- Confidence: medium. Weekly rules are clean, but daily momentum has weakened after the June high.
Current Position in the Cycle
The preferred count keeps Primary 5 active, with the June pullback counted as Minor 4 unless 7,266.99 fails decisively. The main alternate is that Primary 5 completed at the June high and a larger A-wave decline has started.
| Degree | Current label | Direction | Evidence | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Cycle V from 2022 low | Up | Weekly structure remains impulsive | Below 3,583.07 |
| Primary | Primary 5 active or topping | Up, late-stage | Primary 4 stayed above Primary 1 territory | Below 5,074.08 weakens bull count |
| Intermediate | Intermediate (3)/(5) | Up but stretched | June high exceeded January high | Below 6,343.72 |
| Minor | Minor 4 or Minor 5 setup | Corrective/rebound | Bounce from 7,266.99 but no new high yet | Below 7,266.99 favors deeper correction |
Current Wave Analysis
Rule check: Primary 2 stayed above the 2022 low; Primary 3 is not the shortest; Primary 4 stayed above Primary 1 price territory. A completed daily five from April 2025 is not used as the primary count because it would make the daily wave (3) too short; the cleaner count treats the 2026 rise as an active extension. Weekly RSI/UO confirmed the Primary 3 region and the 2026 high, while daily RSI/UO have softened since the June peak.
Weekly Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle IV low | Cycle | 2022-10-10 00:00 | 3,583.07 | 21,864,890,000 | 36.4 | 35.5 |
| P1 | Primary | 2023-07-24 00:00 | 4,582.23 | 20,193,230,000 | 70.5 | 66.1 |
| P2 | Primary | 2023-10-23 00:00 | 4,117.37 | 19,764,430,000 | 38.9 | 30.0 |
| P3 | Primary | 2025-02-10 00:00 | 6,114.63 | 22,510,590,000 | 62.5 | 62.0 |
| P4 | Primary | 2025-03-31 00:00 | 5,074.08 | 29,999,550,000 | 27.7 | 31.2 |
| P5? | Primary | 2026-05-25 00:00 | 7,580.06 | 24,373,460,000 | 73.1 | 72.9 |
Daily Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P4 low | Primary | 2025-04-08 00:00 | 4,982.77 | 7,408,140,000 | 21.4 | 37.0 |
| Int (1) | Intermediate | 2025-10-28 00:00 | 6,890.89 | 5,695,930,000 | 68.7 | 66.0 |
| Int (2) | Intermediate | 2025-11-20 00:00 | 6,538.76 | 5,596,080,000 | 34.9 | 35.1 |
| Minor 1 | Minor | 2026-01-27 00:00 | 6,978.60 | 5,331,720,000 | 58.6 | 47.3 |
| Minor 2 | Minor | 2026-03-30 00:00 | 6,343.72 | 5,458,640,000 | 27.7 | 30.7 |
| Minor 3? | Minor | 2026-06-02 00:00 | 7,609.78 | 5,904,410,000 | 75.0 | 65.3 |
| Minor 4? | Minor | 2026-06-10 00:00 | 7,266.99 | 5,247,300,000 | 40.6 | 39.1 |
| bounce | Minute | 2026-06-12 00:00 | 7,431.46 | 4,950,530,000 | 52.7 | 48.4 |
Hourly Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor 2 | Minor | 2026-03-30 14:30 | 6,319.87 | 343,245,942 | 20.8 | 21.7 |
| i | Minute | 2026-05-14 10:30 | 7,507.26 | 364,579,533 | 75.6 | 78.3 |
| ii | Minute | 2026-05-19 10:30 | 7,341.46 | 365,502,618 | 36.7 | 40.1 |
| iii | Minute | 2026-06-02 10:30 | 7,615.93 | 410,027,986 | 69.5 | 66.7 |
| iv? | Minute | 2026-06-10 15:30 | 7,267.65 | 392,781,749 | 29.2 | 40.9 |
| v bounce? | Minute | 2026-06-12 10:30 | 7,452.96 | 373,527,411 | 63.4 | 67.6 |
30-Minute Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| i | Minuette | 2026-05-14 11:30 | 7,513.72 | 160,153,704 | 77.3 | 65.9 |
| ii | Minuette | 2026-05-19 11:00 | 7,341.46 | 172,851,201 | 37.1 | 44.4 |
| iii | Minuette | 2026-06-02 11:00 | 7,615.93 | 185,840,617 | 64.4 | 58.4 |
| iv | Minuette | 2026-06-10 15:30 | 7,267.65 | 392,781,749 | 32.3 | 39.2 |
| v? | Minuette | 2026-06-12 11:00 | 7,452.96 | 162,347,066 | 69.4 | 63.6 |
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Cycle V / Primary 5 advance | Up, extended | Bull trend but late wave | 6,637 / 6,054 | 7,610 / 8,392 | OK |
| Anchor | Weekly | Primary 5 active or topping | Up | Bullish with exhaustion risk | 7,294 / 7,117 | 7,610 / 8,329 | OK |
| Trading | Daily | Minor 4 or renewed Minor 5 | Mixed after pullback | Needs 7,610 reclaim | 7,266 / 7,126 | 7,610 / 7,752 | Watch |
| Precision | 1-Hour | Minute v bounce attempt | Up from 7,267 | Short-term rebound | 7,382 / 7,338 | 7,568 / 7,638 | OK |
| Precision | 30-Min | Minuette v? rebound | Up, short-term stretched | Confirmation needed | 7,382 / 7,338 | 7,568 / 7,638 | OK |
Interpretation: weekly and monthly trend remain bullish, while daily and intraday layers are in a post-high repair phase. Continuation needs a reclaim of 7,610; failure below 7,266 shifts the working bias to a deeper Minor 4.
Precision Layer Signals
| Setup | Entry zone / trigger | Targets | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuation | Daily reclaim of 7,610 or hold above 7,338 then push | 7,638 / 7,753 / 8,392 | Below 7,266.99 | Hourly RSI holds above 50 |
| Pullback | Failure under 7,382 then 7,338 | 7,311 / 7,126 / 6,977 | Above 7,610 | Daily UO remains below 50 |
| Top confirmation | Daily close below 6,827 and weak retest | 6,606 / 6,296 / 6,054 | Above 7,610 | Weekly RSI divergence persists |
1-Hour OHLC Chart
The 1-hour layer shows a pullback into 7,267 followed by a rebound. Holding above 7,338-7,382 keeps the retest path alive.
Daily OHLC Chart
The daily layer is extended and no longer cleanly overbought after the June reversal. A reclaim of 7,610 favors the extension scenario; a break below 7,266 favors a deeper retrace.
Weekly OHLC Chart
The weekly impulse from 2022 remains rule-compliant. Larger correction levels begin at 6,659.48, then 6,071.58.
Data Validation
| Timeframe | Rows | Date range | Findings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | 498 | 1985-01-01 to 2026-06-01 | INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| Weekly | 5137 | 1927-12-26 to 2026-06-08 | INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| Daily | 24729 | 1927-12-30 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 2 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| 1-Hour | 3532 | 2024-06-04 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 507 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| 30-Minute | 637 | 2026-04-06 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 48 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.