STOXX50 / EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E) Elliott Wave Analysis
Report date: 2026-06-15. Price data as of 2026-06-12. Instrument details auto-detected from filename and web search - please verify.
Instrument Info
| Name | EURO STOXX 50 Index |
|---|---|
| Symbol | SX5E.INDX / SX5E |
| ISIN | EU0009658145 |
| Exchange / Administrator | STOXX Ltd. |
| Currency | EUR |
| Type | Equity index |
Instrument Overview
EURO STOXX 50 is a eurozone blue-chip equity index administered by STOXX. The SX5E.INDX bundle is treated as the price index in EUR, with zero intraday volume in the hourly layers; therefore intraday confirmation leans on RSI and UO rather than volume.
Reference source: STOXX SX5E index page; fallback metadata cross-check from public SX5E index references.
Forecasts
| Scenario | Direction | Next wave + degree | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary 5 extends | Up | Minute iv -> v of Intermediate (5) | 6,117.75 | 6,298.82 | 6,611.79 | Below 5,986.71 first; larger below 5,501.28 | 55% |
| Wave 4 pullback | Down first | Minor/Minute 4 retraces the Mar-Jun advance | 6,025.65 | 5,925.44 | 5,844.45 | Above 6,316.23 before pullback starts | 30% |
| Primary top | Down | Primary ⑤ complete; larger A wave begins | 5,652.68 | 5,487.43 | 5,091.51 | Sustained break above 6,611.79 | 15% |
Cycle correlation: No matching SX5E 2026 cycle file was found in the skill cycle store, so no cycle timing overlay or probability adjustment was applied.
SMA(18) side note: daily trend rising; last two daily lows below SMA(18): false; last two daily highs above SMA(18): true. Weekly trend rising; monthly trend rising. This note is descriptive only and did not affect the wave count or probabilities.
Executive Summary
- Primary count: SX5E is in Primary ⑤ of a Cycle-degree advance from the 2022 low.
- Current position: the daily and intraday layers show a mature Intermediate (5), with price pressing a new high at 6,187.63.
- Top upside targets: 6,298.82, 6,367.99, then 6,611.79.
- Biggest risk: a close below 5,986.71 starts a short-term correction; below 5,501.28 materially weakens the Primary ⑤ extension count.
- Confidence: medium. Trend alignment is strong, but RSI/UO show a late-wave structure rather than a fresh low-risk impulse.
Current Position in the Cycle
The preferred count places SX5E in a late Primary ⑤ advance. The alternate is that Primary ⑤ already completed at the June high, which would open a larger A-wave correction toward 5,652-5,091.
| Degree | Current label | Direction | Evidence | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Cycle III from 2022 low | Up | Weekly structure is impulsive and price remains above Primary ④ | Below 3,318.20 |
| Primary | ⑤ active or topping | Up, mature | New high above 2026-02 peak | Below 5,501.28 weakens the count |
| Intermediate | (5) of Primary ⑤ | Up | Daily higher high after March low | Below 5,763.61 |
| Minor | iii/v near completion | Up, stretched | Intraday RSI near overbought at the high | Below 5,986.71 |
Current Wave Analysis
Rule check: Primary ② stayed above the 2022 low, Primary ③ is not the shortest, and Primary ④ remained above Primary ① territory. Alternation is acceptable: Primary ② was a moderate zigzag-type decline while Primary ④ was a sharper volatility shock. Wave ⑤ is extended but carries RSI/UO divergence risk versus prior thrusts.
Weekly Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle II low | Cycle | 2022-09-26 00:00 | 3,318.20 | 194,780,600 | 34.0 | 38.6 |
| ① | Primary | 2023-07-24 00:00 | 4,466.50 | 150,855,600 | 59.7 | 65.1 |
| ② | Primary | 2023-10-23 00:00 | 4,014.36 | 126,803,500 | 38.0 | 41.1 |
| ③ | Primary | 2025-02-10 00:00 | 5,493.40 | 127,088,200 | 72.7 | 75.8 |
| ④ | Primary | 2025-04-07 00:00 | 4,787.23 | 240,177,200 | 36.4 | 41.9 |
| ⑤? | Primary | 2026-06-08 00:00 | 6,187.63 | 128,084,500 | 62.8 | 61.4 |
Daily Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (4) | Intermediate | 2025-04-09 00:00 | 4,622.14 | 44,888,000 | 24.9 | 35.2 |
| (1) | Intermediate | 2025-05-20 00:00 | 5,454.65 | 24,317,400 | 67.1 | 75.3 |
| (2) | Intermediate | 2025-06-19 00:00 | 5,197.03 | 19,404,400 | 36.6 | 39.5 |
| (3) | Intermediate | 2025-11-12 00:00 | 5,787.31 | 25,359,300 | 64.6 | 63.7 |
| (4) | Intermediate | 2025-11-21 00:00 | 5,515.09 | 22,858,600 | 40.2 | 39.4 |
| (5) ext | Intermediate | 2026-02-25 00:00 | 6,173.32 | 20,315,900 | 66.1 | 67.6 |
| 4 of (5) | Minor | 2026-03-20 00:00 | 5,501.28 | 66,593,000 | 30.0 | 36.3 |
| 1 | Minor | 2026-04-17 00:00 | 6,057.71 | 35,407,300 | 63.7 | 66.9 |
| 2 | Minor | 2026-05-04 00:00 | 5,763.61 | 23,044,900 | 44.4 | 47.3 |
| 3? | Minor | 2026-06-12 00:00 | 6,187.63 | 29,587,300 | 64.6 | 53.0 |
Hourly Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Minor | 2026-03-27 11:00 | 5,487.38 | 0 | 32.3 | 28.7 |
| 1 | Minor | 2026-04-17 16:00 | 6,066.14 | 0 | 74.6 | 68.4 |
| 2 | Minor | 2026-05-04 17:00 | 5,767.07 | 0 | 35.9 | 45.3 |
| i | Minute | 2026-05-27 12:00 | 6,116.16 | 0 | 70.2 | 56.9 |
| ii | Minute | 2026-06-01 15:00 | 6,002.47 | 0 | 34.7 | 41.0 |
| iii? | Minute | 2026-06-12 11:00 | 6,186.92 | 0 | 68.8 | 60.3 |
30-Minute Pivot Indicator Table
| Label | Degree | Date | Price | Volume | RSI | UO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (i) | Minuette | 2026-05-18 09:30 | 5,780.28 | 0 | 33.9 | 46.1 |
| (ii) | Minuette | 2026-05-27 14:00 | 6,126.56 | 0 | 68.0 | 56.3 |
| (iv) | Minuette | 2026-06-10 13:00 | 5,986.71 | 0 | 25.1 | 37.0 |
| (v)? | Minuette | 2026-06-12 11:00 | 6,190.37 | 0 | 70.9 | 63.8 |
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Monthly | Cycle III / Primary ⑤ | Up | Bullish but extended | 5,510 / 5,091 | 6,611 / 6,874 | OK |
| Anchor | Weekly | Primary ⑤ active or topping | Up | Late-stage bull | 6,025 / 5,925 | 6,612 / 6,874 | OK |
| Trading | Daily | Intermediate (5) of Primary ⑤ | Up | Trend continuation with top risk | 6,025 / 5,763 | 6,316 / 6,612 | OK |
| Precision | 1-Hour | Minute iii/v near high | Up, stretched | Wait for iv support or breakout | 6,090 / 6,031 | 6,316 / 6,438 | OK |
| Precision | 30-Min | Minuette (v)? testing high | Up, overbought | Trailing-risk zone | 6,088 / 6,030 | 6,316 / 6,394 | OK |
Interpretation: all layers are directionally aligned upward, but they are aligned at a late-wave point. The preferred tactic is to respect trend continuation while treating fresh highs as a trailing-risk zone rather than early-cycle entry.
Precision Layer Signals
| Setup | Entry zone / trigger | Targets | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continuation | Hold 6,031-6,090 then reclaim 6,202 | 6,316 / 6,438 / 6,612 | Below 5,986.71 | Hourly RSI recovers above 50 |
| Pullback | Failure back below 6,090 | 6,025 / 5,925 / 5,844 | Above 6,202 | Daily UO slips below 50 |
| Major top watch | Daily close below 5,763 | 5,652 / 5,487 / 5,091 | Above 6,316 | Weekly RSI divergence persists |
1-Hour OHLC Chart
The 1-hour structure has a mature advance from the March low. Holding 6,031-6,090 keeps the short-term extension path alive; losing 5,986.71 favors a deeper wave iv correction.
Daily OHLC Chart
The daily count is an extended Intermediate (5). Momentum confirms the uptrend, but the current high is not a clean early-wave momentum launch.
Weekly OHLC Chart
The weekly impulse from 2022 remains valid. A larger correction would first target the 23.6%-38.2% retracement zone at 5,510.44-5,091.51.
Data Validation
| Timeframe | Rows | Date range | Findings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | 232 | 2007-03-01 to 2026-06-01 | WARN: Indicator 'SMA_200' is >50% empty; treat as unreliable.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| Weekly | 1003 | 2007-03-26 to 2026-06-08 | INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| Daily | 4811 | 2007-03-30 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 9 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| 1-Hour | 4543 | 2024-06-04 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 504 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
| 30-Minute | 778 | 2026-04-07 to 2026-06-12 | INFO: 45 larger-than-usual time gap(s) (possible holidays/halts); verify continuity.; INFO: No blocking errors — data is usable for analysis. |
Disclaimer
This report is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Elliott Wave analysis is subjective and multiple valid counts may coexist. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.