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| Name | STOXX Europe 600 |
|---|---|
| Symbol | SXXP |
| ISIN | EU0009658202 |
| Exchange | STOXX Ltd. / Deutsche Börse (multi-listing) |
| Currency | EUR (price-return variant) |
| Type | Broad European equity index (600 constituents) |
The STOXX 600 is a free-float, market-cap-weighted benchmark covering large-, mid- and small-cap names across 17 European countries and ~90% of investable market cap. It made an all-time high of 633.85 in late February 2026, corrected sharply into a March low at 573.28, and has since recovered to retest the highs (633.21 close on 12 June). The data spans April 2004 to June 2026.
Primary read: the index is in Primary wave ② (5) of a Cycle-degree advance off the 2009 and 2020 bases, and within it an Intermediate (3) impulse is unfolding from the March-2026 low (573.28). The retest of the February high keeps the bullish structure intact; only a decisive break back below 573.28 overturns it.
| # | Scenario | Dir | Next wave | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Intermediate (3) extends higher break & hold above 633.85 ATH | Up | Int. (3) / Primary ② | 674.6 0.618× | 720 | 737.2 1.0× | 573.28 | 55% |
| 2 | Sideways Int. (4) first, then (5) | Up (after dip) | Int. (4) → (5) | 600 (4 low) | 660 | 700+ | 573.28 | 30% |
| 3 | (1)-(2) was a Primary ② top; correction | Down | Primary Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ | 590 (A) | 615 (B) | 555 (C) | 633.85 (above = void) | 15% |
Cycle correlation: No stored cycle-forecast file exists for SXXP, so no independent cycle-timing overlay was applied — the scenario probabilities are derived solely from Elliott-Wave rule compliance and indicator confluence (Volume / RSI / UO).
SMA(18) side note (daily): trend is rising; the last two daily bars' lows are not below SMA(18); the last two bars' highs are above SMA(18). Descriptive only — it does not affect the count, scenarios, or probabilities.
Current wave: Intermediate (3) up, Primary degree ②, direction up, started 20 Mar 2026 at 573.28. Price at the report date is 633.21 (12 Jun close).
| Degree | Active wave | Since | Reference level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supercycle | (V) up (from 2009 / 2020 bases) | 2009 / 2020 | 155.38 / 268.57 |
| Cycle | V up | Oct 2022 | 379.72 |
| Primary | ② (5) up | Apr 2025 | 464.26 / 469.89 |
| Intermediate | (3) up ◀ current | 20 Mar 2026 | 573.28 |
| Minor | 3 up (within (3)) | 10 Jun 2026 | 615.53 |
Confidence rationale: Price holds above the rising SMA_50/100/200 (golden-cross macro), the March low printed RSI 29 / UO 33 (oversold wave-(2) exhaustion), and the rebound recovered the full range on improving momentum — textbook wave-(2)-to-(3) behaviour.
Alternate count & invalidation: The Feb high (1) and March low (2) could instead be the end of Primary ② (a completed five up from 2025), making the current rally a wave-Ⓑ bounce inside a larger Primary correction. That alternate is favoured only on a clean rejection at 633.85 followed by a break of 573.28; a sustained move above the ATH effectively retires it.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Wave / degree | Intermediate (3), Primary ② |
| Start | 20 Mar 2026 @ 573.28 |
| Sub-structure (Minor) | 1 (→630.92, 27 May) · 2 (→615.53, 10 Jun) · 3 in progress (632.87, 12 Jun) |
| Fib extension targets | T1 674.6 (0.618×) · T2 ~720 · T3 737.2 (1.0×) |
| Retracement supports | 619 (23.6%) · 610 (38.2%) · 603 (50%) · 596 (61.8%) |
| Invalidation | 573.28 (Intermediate (2) low) |
| Confidence | Medium-high |
| Date | Wave | Price | RSI_14 | UO | Volume | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Mar 2025 | Primary ②-3 region high | 563.1 | 73.4 | 69.3 | 255M | strong momentum |
| 09 Apr 2025 | Primary ①/④ low | 612.6* | 58.9 | 65.8 | 185M | base |
| 27 Feb 2026 | Int. (1) top | 633.8 | 69.1 | 58.0 | 377M | UO already lagging |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Int. (2) low | 573.3 | 29.0 | 33.3 | 590M | oversold, capitulation vol |
| 12 Jun 2026 | Int. (3) / Minor 3 | 633.2 | 63.3 | 56.5 | 215M | momentum re-expanding |
*Adjusted-series print at that pivot. Volume surge at the March (2) low and contracting volume on the rebound are consistent with a completed correction and a new impulse, though the slightly lower UO at the ATH retest is the one caution flag (watch for bearish divergence if 633.85 is exceeded only marginally).
| Layer | TF | Current wave | Dir | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Align |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary ② (5) | Up | Bull | 573 / 535 | 634 ATH | ✓ |
| Primary | Daily | Intermediate (3) | Up | Bull | 596–603 | 633.85 | ✓ |
| Swing | 1-Hour | Minor 3 | Up | Bull | 615.5 | 633 | ✓ |
| Micro | 30-Min | Minuette up | Up | Bull | 613.8 | 633.3 | ✓ |
All four timeframes align bullish into the ATH retest — the highest-confidence configuration. The single watch-item is the 633.85 ceiling: a clean break confirms Scenario 1; a sharp rejection there shifts weight toward the sideways-(4) (Scenario 2) or, on a 573 break, the bearish alternate.
| Setup | Entry zone | Target | Stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minor-3 continuation (long) | 624–628 pullback | 650 → 674 | <615.5 | 30m close back above 631 |
| Breakout (long) | >634 on close | 674.6 | <625 | hourly close above ATH + UO>60 |
| Failure (short, alt) | rejection 632–634 | 603 → 596 | >635 | 1h break of 615.5 |
Count: Intermediate (2) low 18 May (603.3) → Minor 1 (630.9) → Minor 2 (615.5, 10 Jun) → Minor 3 underway (632.9). Levels: support 615.5 / 603.3; resistance 633. Momentum panels turning back up off the Minor-2 low.
Count: Primary ④/② structure off the Apr-2025 low; Intermediate (1) ATH 27 Feb (633.85), (2) low 20 Mar (573.28), (3) retesting highs. Levels: invalidation 573.28; targets 674.6 then 737.2. Price above all three long SMAs.
Count: Supercycle / Cycle advance off the 2009 (155.38) and 2020 (268.57) lows; Primary ② in force since the 2022 (379.72) and 2025 (464.26) lows. Data: 1,155 weekly bars, 2004–2026; range 155.38–636.16.