Zscaler, Inc. (common stock; NASDAQ Global Select Market) is a San Jose–based cloud-security company built around Zero Trust network access. After topping at an all-time high near $369 in November 2021, the shares have spent four years in a large corrective structure; a 2023–2025 recovery stalled at a lower high (~$336, Nov 2025) and price has since fallen ~63% to the low-$120s, with a sharp late-May 2026 earnings-guidance plunge accelerating the decline. The series is updated through 18 June 2026 (daily close $124.85). Instrument details auto-detected from filename and web search — please verify.
Scenarios are mutually exclusive and ordered highest→lowest probability. The pivotal line for all three is the $118.05 April 2026 low: a decisive break confirms the primary bearish case, while it holding keeps the two upside alternates alive.
| # | Scenario | Direction | Next wave (degree) | T1 | T2 | T3 | Invalidation | Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bearish continuation — minor 3 of Intermediate (3) of Primary Ⓒ extends lower | DOWN | minor 3 → (3) low (Minor / Intermediate) | 118 | 97 | 62 | daily close > $156.05 | 55% |
| 2 | Bounce first — Intermediate (2) is a larger complex correction; the $120–122 shelf holds for one more rally leg before the downtrend resumes | UP then DOWN | (c)/(2) completion (Intermediate) | 151 | 168 | — | daily close < $118.05 | 27% |
| 3 | Bullish bottom — the April $118 low completed Primary Ⓒ (running/truncated); a new advance begins | UP | 1–up (Minor/Intermediate) | 156 | 185 | 216 | daily close < $118.05 | 18% |
No stored cycle-forecast file matches symbol ZS (checked references/cycles/ for the 2026 forecast year — none found). Cycle-timing correlation is therefore skipped; the scenario probabilities above are derived from Elliott Wave rule compliance and indicator confluence (Volume / RSI / UO) only, with no cycle input.
The active wave is minor 3 of Intermediate (3) of Primary Ⓒ, direction DOWN, begun from the Intermediate (2) high at $184.60 / $190.20 intraday on 26 May 2026. Price ($124.85) sits below SMA-50 ($140.7) and far below SMA-200 ($211.6), with SMA-50<SMA-200 (death cross) — a bearish macro backdrop in which only corrective rallies are expected.
| Degree | Label | Direction | Anchor (date / price) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | II (corrective A-B-C) | down | 2021-11-19 / $368.78 (I top) | in progress |
| Primary | Ⓒ of II | down | 2025-11-03 / $336.27 (Ⓑ top) | in progress |
| Intermediate | (3) of Ⓒ | down | 2026-05-26 / $184.60 ((2) top) | in progress |
| Minor | 3 of (3) | down | 2026-06-01 / $155.71 (minor 2 top) | ▶ ACTIVE |
Confidence rationale: the Nov 2025→April 2026 leg counts as a clean five-wave Intermediate (1); the (2) bounce was a sharp but shallow (~30%) zigzag — weak counter-trend retracement that usually precedes a strong continuation; minor 1 of (3) gapped down on record volume and minor 2 retraced a textbook 50%. Alternate count: Intermediate (2) is not finished and is forming a larger flat/triangle (the $120–122 shelf as its b-wave low), allowing one more rally toward $151–168 before (3) proper. Invalidation of the bearish read: a daily close back above $156.05 negates the immediate minor-3-down; above $190.20 negates Intermediate (3) entirely.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Active wave | minor 3 of Intermediate (3) of Primary Ⓒ — down |
| Wave start | 2026-06-01, $155.71 (minor 2 high) |
| Sub-waves done | minor 1 ($190.20→$124.67, 28 May), minor 2 ($124.67→$155.71, 1 Jun, ~50% retrace) |
| In progress | minor 3 grinding $131→$120-122; not yet through $118.05 |
| Fib targets (minor 3 = ext of minor 1 from $155.71) | 1.0× → $97.5; 1.618× → $61.6 |
| Primary Ⓒ targets (Ⓒ vs Ⓐ from $336.27) | 0.618×Ⓐ → $162 (passed); 1.0×Ⓐ → $54.5 |
| Invalidation | daily close > $156.05 (near-term); > $190.20 (Intermediate) |
minor 1: 190.20→124.67 (gap-down, 28 May, vol ~31.8M) · minor 2: 124.67→155.71 (1 Jun, 50% retrace, RSI back to 51.7) · minor 3: 155.71→~122 (in progress, hourly shows lower lows $122.12→$121.55 holding the $120-122 shelf).
| Date | Pivot / label | Price | RSI_14 | UO | Volume | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | Primary Ⓑ top | 336.27 | 68.9 | 61.9 | 1.1M | overbought top ✓ |
| 2026-02-23 | within Int (1) | 143.28 | 19.4 | 40.8 | 5.7M | deeply oversold (extended 3rd) |
| 2026-04-10 | Intermediate (1) low | 118.05 | 26.7 | 36.1 | 5.5M | oversold trough ✓ |
| 2026-05-26 | Intermediate (2) top | 184.60 | 74.1 | 65.5 | 10.7M | overbought; bounce exhausted ✓ |
| 2026-05-27/28 | minor 1 of (3) | 126.41 | 37.3 | 38.7 | 31.8M | record vol gap-down = 3rd-wave kick ⚠ |
| 2026-06-01 | minor 2 of (3) | 155.71 | 51.7 | 45.2 | 10.4M | 50% retrace, momentum reset |
| 2026-06-18 | minor 3 (active) | 124.85 | 40.5 | 61.1 | 16.6M | UO elevated vs price = mild non-confirmation |
Indicator note: the dominant tells are bearish (price < all SMAs, death cross, record down-volume on the (3) kickoff). The one caution is the current UO reading (~61) sitting higher than at the April low despite price being near support — a mild positive divergence that supports giving the “bounce first” alternate meaningful weight.
| Layer | Timeframe | Current wave | Direction | Bias | Key support | Key resistance | Aligned |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro | Weekly | Primary Ⓒ of Cycle II | down | bearish | $87 (Ⓐ low) | $336 (Ⓑ top) | ✓ |
| Primary | Daily | Intermediate (3) of Ⓒ | down | bearish | $118.05 | $184.60 | ✓ |
| Intermediate | 1-Hour | minor 3 of (3) | down | bearish | $120-122 | $156.05 | ✓ |
| Minute | 30-Min | micro chop / basing | sideways | neutral | $120.84 | $132.44 | ⚠ near-term |
All higher timeframes are aligned bearish. The only non-alignment is intraday: the 30-minute is chopping $120.84–$132.44 and holding the $120-121 shelf, i.e. a short-term pause/possible micro-bounce within the larger downtrend. Interpretation: the trend is down and confirmed across weekly/daily/hourly; the intraday hesitation argues for either an imminent $118 break (primary) or a brief relief bounce first (Alt 2) — not a trend reversal.
| Setup | Trigger | Target | Tight stop | Confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear continuation | 30m close < $120.84 | $97 → $62 | $132.5 | hourly close < $118.05 on rising volume |
| Relief bounce (Alt 2) | hourly close > $132.5 | $151 → $168 | $120.8 | reclaim of $156.05 daily |
Wave count: Intermediate (1) low $118.05 (10 Apr) → (2) high $190.20 (26 May) → minor 1 $124.67 → minor 2 $156.05 → minor 3 grinding the $120-122 shelf. Key levels: support $120-122 then $118.05; resistance $156.05 then $190.20. Data: focused slice 2026-03-20→2026-06-18, 441 bars (full file: 2024-06-04→2026-06-18, 3,560 bars); last RSI 45.9, UO 55.5.
Wave count: Cycle I top $368.78 (2021) → Primary Ⓐ $87 (2023) → Primary Ⓑ $336.27 (Nov 2025) → Intermediate (1) $118.05 → (2) $184.60 → (3) in progress. Key levels: support $118.05 / $97 / $62; resistance $184.60 / $336. Data: 2018-03-16→2026-06-18, 2,076 bars, range $24.76–$376.11; last RSI 40.5, UO 61.1.
Wave count: the macro anchor — Cycle wave I to the 2021 ATH ($368.78), then Cycle II as Primary Ⓐ ($87, 2023) – Ⓑ (zigzag a:$255 / b:$157 / c:$336, 2025) – Ⓒ (now). The 2025 high being a lower high than 2021 is the key tell that the larger structure remains corrective. Key levels: $87 (Ⓐ low, must break for Ⓒ to extend); $54.5 (Ⓒ=Ⓐ target). Data: 2018-03-12→2026-06-15, 432 bars, range $24.76–$376.11; last RSI 35.9, UO 46.6.